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Translated Lottery Odds

US Presswire

US Presswire


 
The NBA Lottery will be held tonight and the odds have been set since the end of the regular season. However, expressing those odds as percentages and fractions of percentages doesn’t always give a tangible sense of the real likelihood of each team winning. I took the liberty of converting each team’s odds into a unit that may be understood more intuitively. I hope it’s helpful.

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Orlando Magic25.0% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Josh McRoberts‘ odds of knocking down consecutive corner three-pointers.

Josh McRoberts shot 52.6% on corner three-pointers for the Magic this season. The odds of him making two in a row would be (0.526 x 0.526 = 27.6%).

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Charlotte Bobcats19.9% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Byron Mullens‘ odds of making four consecutive free throws.

Byron Mullens shot 64.6% on free throws for the Bobcats this season. The odds of him making four in a row would be (0.646 x 0.646 x 0.646 x 0.646 = 17.4%).

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Cleveland Cavaliers15.6% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Kyrie Irving‘s odds of making consecutive three-pointers.

Kyrie Irving shot 39.1% on three-pointers for the Cavs this seasons. His odds of making two in a row would be (0.391 x 0.391 = 15.2%).

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Phoenix Suns11.9% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Markieff Morris‘ odds of making consecutive three-pointers.

Markieff Morris shot 33.6% on three-pointers for the Suns this season. His odds of making two in a row would be (0.336 x 0.336 = 11.2%).

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New Orleans Pelicans8.8% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Austin Rivers‘ odds of making four consecutive free throws.

Austin Rivers shot 54.6% on free throws this season. His odds of making four in a row would be (0.546 x 0.546 x 0.546 x 0.546 = 8.9%

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Sacramento Kings6.3% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as DeMarcus Cousins‘ odds of missing three consecutive layups.

DeMarcus Cousins shot 60.6% at the rim this season. That means he missed 39.4% of shots at the rim. His odds of missing three layups in a row would be (0.394 x 0.394 x 0.394 = 6.1%).

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Detroit Pistons3.9% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Greg Monroe‘s odds of assisting on consecutive made baskets by the Pistons.

Greg Monroe assisted on 18.6% of the Pistons made baskets when he was on the floor this season. His odds of assisting on two consecutive makes would be (0.186 x 0.186 = 3.6%).

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Washington Wizards3.5% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Emeka Okafor‘s odds of collecting consecutive rebounds.

Emeka Okafor snared 18.7% of the total available rebounds when he was on the floor for the Wizards. His odds of collecting two in a row would be (0.187 x 0.187 = 3.5%).

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Minnesota Timberwolves1.7% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same Ricky Rubio‘s odds of making four consecutive shots from the field.

Ricky Rubio shot 36.0% from the field for the Timberwolves this season. His odds of making four in a row would be (0.360 x 0.360 x 0.360 x 0.360 = 1.7%).

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Portland Trailblazers1.1% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as J.J. Hickson‘s odds of generating a steal on any given defensive possession.

J.J. Hickson’s season long steal percentage for the Trail Blazers this season was 1.1%.

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Philadelphia 76ers0.8% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Evan Turner‘s odds of going eight consecutive field goal attempts without a mid-range jumper.

53.9% of Evan Turner’s shot attempts this season were not mid-range jumpers. His odds of attempting eight consecutive shots without having one come from the mid-range would be (0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 = 0.7%).

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Toronto Raptors0.7% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Rudy Gay‘s odds of making five consecutive mid-range jumpers.

Rudy Gay made 36.0% of his mid-range jumpshots this season. His odds of making five in a row would be (0.360 x 0.360 x 0.360 x 0.360 x 0.360 = 0.6%).

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Dallas Mavericks0.6% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Dirk Nowitzki‘s odds of making 34 consecutive free throws.

Dirk Nowitzki made 86.0% of his free throws this season. His odds of making 34 in a row would be (0.860 ^ 34 = 0.6%).

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Utah Jazz0.5% of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Mo Williams‘ odds of collecting two consecutive rebounds.

Mo Williams had a total rebound percentage of 7.2% this season. His odds of snagging two consecutive rebounds would be (0.072 x 0.072 = 0.5%).

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As crazy as all those odds sound, keep in mind that one of them will hit tonight!

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