2012 Draft Similarity Scores
It’s time again for Hickory-High’s Draft Similarity Scores. If you’ve missed the past two yearly editions, this is a system I created to compare NBA draft prospects to those from previous seasons, based purely on their statistical profiles. I had become frustrated with the amount of subjective comparisons and analogies being made when it came to scouting draft prospects:
For years, every guard with exceptional leaping ability was potentially the next Michael Jordan. Every long white player who can shoot is the next Larry Bird, Keith Van Horn or Adam Morrison; depending on the era. Although, in some parts of Rhode Island they’re referred to as the second coming of Austin Croshere. Every point guard from Gonzaga is the next John Stockton, every huge, awkward center is the next Greg Ostertag and every shot-blocking center with African roots is the next Dikembe Mutombo. These comparisons, based on skin color, position, the college they attended or one singular attribute, do a diservice to the players and fans alike.
This system is my answer to those tenuous connections made on the most obvious and least meaningful criteria. The idea was to create an objective method for comparing players, instead of having to rely so heavily on subjective observation. I recognize that this is largely an over-reaction which creates its own set of problems. This system is based on college statistics, and just those from the season before the player was drafted. Therefore, it doesn’t capture potential, patterns of development, personality, or athleticism; besides how they are tangentially reflected in a player’s production. What these similarity scores are meant to identify are the players who produced at the most comparable level to each draft prospect. This is merely a snapshot - at this moment in time Player A’s college production is most similar to Player B’s.
Because of the nature of this system it contains only a small amount of information in determining the future value of each player. However I think it provides an interesting and unique place to start conversations about future value, and puts questions of potential and development into a different context then how they are normally discussed.
Each year I’ve adjusted my system and this edition is no exception. This year the changes come in the statistical categories. I’ve added age and the team’s strength of schedule, replacing FGA/POS and Pure Point Rating, categories which I felt like provided some overlap with others. Here are the 21 categories the comparisons are based on.
- Team Strength of Schedule (Taken from KenPom.com back to 2003, Statsheet.com beyond)
- Age (On the day of the NBA Draft)
- Minutes per Game
- Points per 40 minutes
- Offensive Rebounds per 40 minutes
- Defensive Rebounds per 40 minutes
- Assists per 40 minutes
- Steals per 40 minutes
- Blocks per 40 minutes
- Personal Fouls per 40 minutes
- 2PT Field Goal Percentage
- 3PT Field Goal Percentage
- Free Throw Percentage
- Free Throw Attempts per 40 minutes
- 3PT Attempts per Field Goal Attempt
- Assists per Field Goal Attempt
- Percentage of Team’s Possessions Used
- Points per Possession
- Turnovers per Possession
My database for comparison uses every collegiate player selected in the 1st Round of the draft going back to 2001. A few 2nd Round picks from the past two years are included as well. Each prospect for this year’s draft is compared to that set in each of the 21 categories. I took the absolute value of the standardized difference between each player’s performance in each category, and multiplied it by 10. That total is then subtracted from 1000. Each similarity score is then on a scale from 0-1000, 0 representing complete opposites, 1000 representing a perfect match. The technique was borrowed from this Basketball-Reference article.
For this year’s list of prospects I took the first 40 collegiate players listed in Draftexpress.com’s 2011 Mock Draft. That list may change so I may be adding more players as the draft approaches. The list below will take you to a page for each player with their similarity information in spreadsheet form, as well links to draft profiles from a few other sites. I will be populating the list below with links as the pages are finished, so check back regularly if there is someone specific you are looking for. As always, feedback and comments are always welcome.