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For example, it would be amazing if we could log defensive breakdowns (e.g. which player started the breakdown and which players fell victim to the initial breakdown), but it is just too hard. I have been party to countless coaches film sessions where we watched a play several times before the room agreed to the cause of the breakdown. This happens with NBA coaching staffs so how can we expect a single logger to get it right?

Lowe added this:

This is part of what makes basketball so challenging to analyze, and so fun to think about. If you have DVR, try watching every layup in a game and placing “blame” on the defender at fault for each one. It’ll be harder than you think, and the fatal error will quite often be something you didn’t notice on first watch.

I thought it was a great challenge and decided to try it out. I chose to look at the Heat-76ers game from Tuesday night and focus on just the 76ers defense. The Heat made 14 layups or dunks in the game. For each one I watched the possession several times and tried to focus on where and how to assign blame.

#1 – Layup – Ronny Turiaf – Pick-and-Roll

Right off the bat we find a very complex scenario, much like Lowe described. Jrue Holiday gets hung up on Turiaf’s screen and Spencer Hawes has no choice but to step out and try to cut off Mario Chalmer’s lane to the basket. Andre Iguodala probably could have stepped in and bumped off Turiaf, but that would have left LeBron James wide open behind the three-point line. Elton Brand could have stepped over but it would have left Chris Bosh alone on the baseline. It seems like only two things could have completely changed this scenario. Hawes could have hedged harder and earlier on Chalmers, keeping him on the perimeter. Hawes also could have called out the screen to Holiday earlier and given more time to react and work through. Either way I think the ultimate blame rests with him.

At Fault: Spencer Hawes

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#2 – Layup – Ronny Turiaf – Cut

It appears that Hawes is supposed to be covering Turiaf on this possession. As the ball is brought up court, Hawes floats to the front of the rim, drifts back to keep LeBron covered on the baseline, and never rotates back to Turiaf as the action unfolds in front of him.

At Fault: Spencer Hawes

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#3 – Layup – Mario Chalmers – Transition

In the open floor, Chalmers froze Evan Turner with a hesitation dribble and went right by him for the layup. You can probably lay some blame at the feet of the other three 76ers who hadn’t hustled back into the play, but ultimately Turner could have made a defensive play to keep Chalmers from scoring. He didn’t.

At Fault: Evan Turner

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#4 – Dunk – LeBron James – Offensive Rebound

Thad Young simply lets LeBron get between him and the basket, and doesn’t make any effort to move him off the spot as the shot is released.

At Fault: Thad Young

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#5 – Layup – LeBron James – Transition

This easy basket results not so much from a defensive breakdown as an offensive one. Lou Williams’ careless pass gives LeBron the ball and momentum towards the basket while all five 76ers are moving in the opposite direction. I might feel differently if Chalmers had made the steal, but with LeBron in that position you can’t blame Jodie Meeks or Elton Brand for allowing a layup.

At Fault: Lou Williams

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#6 – Dunk – Udonis Haslem – Cut

Although Norris Cole has made his way into the lane, Williams still has his body in front of him and would have been able to contest any shot attempt at the rim. But Hawes has drifted into the lane, lost contact with Haslem, and gives up an easy layup off the back-cut.

At Fault: Spencer Hawes

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#7 – Layup – Terrell Harris – Spot-Up

First of all, I’m surprised that mySynergySports classifies this possession as a spot-up. It seems like an isolation to me, but that’s neither here nor there. Williams is in good defensive position, but gets caught off guard by the spin move. Young and Hawes aren’t going to leave Haslem or Bosh open for a 12 foot jumper so Williams is on an island here and needs to make the stop. He didn’t.

At Fault: Lou Williams

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#8 – Layup – Chris Bosh – Pick-and-Roll

I put this one on Elton Brand. He hedges far enough that he can’t get back to Bosh in time to stop the layup, but not far enough to keep Cole from turning the corner and getting into the lane.

At Fault: Elton Brand

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#9 – Layup – LeBron James – Spot-Up

Andre Iguodala makes a wild, leaping attempt to steal the backwards pass from Harris and ends up landing way out of position. LeBron is essentially unstoppable with the ball, forward momentum and a clear path to the free throw line. The defensive breakdown here is Iguodala not preventing him from getting those three advantages.

At Fault: Andre Iguodala

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#10 – Tip-In – Udonis Haslem – Offensive Rebound

This one was difficult. Both Brand and Hawes contest the shot which seems to me the appropriate play. That would leave responsibility for putting a body on Haslem to Iguodala, the next closest 76er. The fact that Haslem runs right past him towards the rim as Iguodala stands and watches doesn’t help his case either.

At Fault: Andre Iguodala

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#11 – Dunk – Chris Bosh – Transition

This one was difficult as well since the Heat have such a physical advantage in transition. If you watch the clip closely you’ll notice that Evan Turner starts at the top of the screen, even with LeBron. By the time they reach the other rim Turner is about 4 steps behind. Obviously LeBron is an in-human freight train, but a little more hustle from Turner could have squeezed the passing lane to Bosh and forced a tougher attempt at the rim.

At Fault: Evan Turner

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#12 – Layup – Udonis Haslem – Cut

Spencer Hawes has to step-up and cut off Wade’s penetration. Young and Turner stand idly on either side of Haslem as he steps through, takes the pass from Wade and lays it in. There’s no excuse for not having a body on Haslem in that situation.

At Fault: Evan Turner and Thad Young

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#13 – Layup – Terrell Harris – Spot-Up

I don’t know what the book is on Terrell Harris, but I would guess ‘don’t let him blow by you’ is somewhere in the table of contents. Williams makes a half-hearted attempt to steal the swing pass and then finds himself on his heels as Harris goes right past him.

At Fault: Lou Williams

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#14 – Dunk – LeBron James – Cut

In this clip, Hawes ends up on LeBron after the scramble for the loose ball. As LeBron makes his cut Hawes is sliding towards the paint, I assume trying to rotate back at his man, while pointing at LeBron. My guess is that he is pointing at LeBron telling Turner to come back and cover him, but clearly Turner can’t cover that much ground in that amount of time. Hawes should be in position to prevent that lob pass.

At Fault: Spencer Hawes

Conclusions:

While I actually didn’t find the experiment as challenging as I thought I would, it really drove home the challenges of evaluating defense. Even more than on offense, every defensive player is involved and active on every play, if for no other purpose than closing off empty space in certain areas of the floor. If anyone doubts that defense relies more on the synergy of five individuals than offense, I would encourage you to watch some tape of the New York Knicks. How to link, track and weigh all of these simultaneous responsibilities is overwhelming both in concept and in execution.

Admittedly, I don’t do much analysis of X’s and O’s, but as I worked through I realized that I had a consistent mind-set in evaluating blame on each possession. Breakdowns happen constantly and defenses are designed to flex and adjust to more than one on a single possession. I think I was more likely to point my finger at the final culprit than it players who initially failed in the roles. I think Lowe’s point absolutely holds true and I would expect that anyone else who watches these clips may disagree completely. If you do find yourself in that position, let me know in the comments or on Twitter, @HickoryHigh.