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Shots from different locations are provide different value. For example, a layup has higher chance of being made than a long two-pointer, and a three-pointer earns an extra point. We refer to these different values as the expected value of a shot. XPPS looks at all the shots a player or team takes and boils that down to one average expected value per shot. Free throw attempts are included as well, so from here on out when I refer to shot attempts, I’m referring to true shot attempts (field goals and trips to the free throw line). In the end, more shots at the rim, free throws and three-pointers means a higher XPPS. More long two-pointers sends the number in the other direction.

Over the past two weeks we’ve gone back and reviewed regular season numbers for both players and teams. Today I wanted to look at how each team’s shot selection has changed from the regular season to the playoffs. The graph below includes three pieces of information. Each team’s regular season XPPS is graphed on the vertical axis. Their playoff XPPS is graphed on the horizontal axis. The third piece of information I’ve included is the change in actual points per shot from regular season to the playoffs. This number is represented by the color of each mark.

The first thing you’ll notice is that almost every team’s actual points per shot has decreased dramatically in the playoffs. The two exceptions are the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors. The Warriors’ increase in efficiency came on almost the exact same quality of shots, meaning they just made slightly more of them then they did in the regular season. The Grizzlies however, have significantly improved their shot selection in the playoffs. The biggest difference has been their free throw rate. In the regular season their ratio of FTA/FGA was 0.261. In the playoffs so far it’s been 0.390. Even though their FT% has slightly declined in the playoffs, simply using more offensive possessions at the free throw line has greatly improved their offensive efficiency. In the regular season the Grizzlies averaged 16.5 made free throws per game, in the playoffs that number has soared to 23.4.

Two other teams that have significantly improved their shot selection in the playoffs are the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers. Again this increase in expected efficiency is almost all about getting to the free throw line. In the regular season their FTA/FGA ratios were 0.297 and 0.293, respectively. So far in the playoffs those marks are 0.369 and 0.383. As these two teams head to the Eastern Conference Finals controlling this variable is going to have a huge impact on the series. Not only has it been the driving force behind each team’s offensive efficiency in the playoffs, but both teams are relatively thin in the front court. Consistent foul trouble on either side will really impact rotations and could throw both teams off offensively and defensively.

On the other end of the spectrum we see that the Los Angeles Lakers were really hindered by an inability to get to the line against the Spurs. Their XPPS fell by 0.067 points per shot in the playoffs, which works out to an expected deficit of nearly seven points per 100 possessions. Their regular season FTA/FGA ratio was 0.345, the best in the league. Kobe Bryant had a lot to do with that, but Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol both regularly drew fouls in the post. In the playoffs that ratio fell to 0.237, which would have ranked 26th in the league during the regular season.

Another team who’s shot selection has really fallen off in the playoffs is the San Antonio Spurs. They haven’t been able to take advantage of the free throw bump some other teams are seeing, basically duplicating their regular season FTA/FGA ratio, but they’re also getting far fewer high-value shots. In the regular season just 25.4% of the Spurs’ shot attempts were long two-pointers, one of the lowest rates in the league. In the playoffs that number has skyrocketed to 33.3%, making up their largest portion of their true shot attempts by a wide margin. It’s no coincidence that the areas which have suffered the most are the areas that provide the most expected value. The percentage of their shots which have come at the rim has fallen from 35.1% in the regular season to 26.2% in the playoffs. The percentage of their shots which have been corner three-pointers has fallen from 9.5% in the regular season to 7.7% in the playoffs.

The final team who has seen some real fundamental changes to their playoff shot selection is the New York Knicks. They attempted a league-high 1,764 three-pointers this season, 26.4% of their total shot attempts. Three-pointers actually made up a larger portion of their shot attempts in the playoffs, 28.8%, with one fundamental change. Corner three-pointers have a much higher expected value than those taken from above-the-break. In the regular season the Knicks’ ratio of above-the-break three pointers to corner threes was a robust 1.8 to 1. In the playoffs that ratio more than doubled to 3.9 to 1. The difference between locations on three-pointers may seem like splitting hairs, but stretched out over 100 shots, corner three-pointers would earn you, on average, an extra 10.9 points over their above-the-break relatives.

Of all these numbers the most surprising thing to me was that in the aggregate the changes were fairly minor, and most of them can be explained by conventional wisdom. The general consensus is that the playoffs feature tougher defense, making it harder to score, and a much more physical style of play. In the near universal decline in scoring efficiency and the way many teams have been getting to the free throw line at much higher rates, we see both ideas played out to a large degree. There are plenty more variables at work but conventional wisdom and statistical analysis so often find themselves at odds, it’s comforting to find a place where the work in concert.

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]]> http://www.hickory-high.com/?feed=rss2&p=7812 0 http://www.hickory-high.com/?p=7698 http://www.hickory-high.com/?p=7698#comments Fri, 17 May 2013 18:39:14 +0000 Ian Levy http://www.hickory-high.com/?p=7698 Continue reading →]]>

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Shots from different locations are provide different value. For example, a layup has higher chance of being made than a long two-pointer, and a three-pointer earns an extra point. We refer to these different values as the expected value of a shot. XPPS looks at all the shots a player or team takes and boils that down to one average expected value per shot. Free throw attempts are included as well, so from here on out when I refer to shot attempts, I’m referring to true shot attempts (field goals and trips to the free throw line). In the end, more shots at the rim, free throws and three-pointers means a higher XPPS. More long two-pointers sends the number in the other direction.

I’ve been keeping track of the numbers all season long for individual players, teams and team defenses, all with interactive visualizations. Last week we looked at some of the best and worst shot selections this season from individual players. Today I want to dig into a few of the most and least impressive team numbers.

This season’s worst shot selection belongs to the Philadelphia 76ers, with an XPPS of 1.016. League average this season was 1.047. The culprit was the ugliest weapon in any offensive arsenal, the mid-range jumpshot, making up 32.0% of their true shot attempts. As a team they attempted nearly a thousand more long two-pointers than three-pointers. That sort of reliance on the mid-range shot certainly hinders offensive efficiency, but it doesn’t outright prohibit it. However, in addition to taking a boatload of long two-pointers the 76ers weren’t especially good at making them. They outperformed their XPPS by just 0.003, for an actual points per shot of 1.019, the second worst mark in the league.

Again, shot selection is not the be-all, end-all variable for good offense but its impact is significant. In a hypothetical world where the 76ers’ shooting percentages from each area of the floor where completely static and immune to changes from outside factors; bringing just their shot selection up to league average XPPS would raise their TS% from 50.9%, 29th in the league this season, to 51.7%, which would have ranked 21st. Using that number, some regression analysis I’ve done previously, and holding their OReb% and TO% constant, we can predict that their ORtg. would jump from the 99.9 they actually averaged in the regular season to 102.9. That would essentially give them an even point differential for the season, the mark of a 0.500 team. I know I’m sprinting down a slippery slope here, assuming a huge number of other variables wouldn’t change as well, but since the 76ers finished at 34-48 we can estimate that their shot selection may have cost them as many as seven wins this season.

With new GM Sam Hinkie on board there are sure to be some foundational changes to how the 76ers go about their business. I’m certainly not the first one to point it out, but working on shot selection may be a good place to start.

At the other end of the spectrum we find a pair of teams working shot selection to some unbelievable advantages. The  top two team shot selections this season, measured by XPPS, were the Houston Rockets (1.103) and the Denver Nuggets (1.094). Those two marks were not only the highest this season, they’re the two highest for the last 12 NBA seasons (which is as far back as my data goes). Given the way shot selection is trending in the NBA, it may be safe to say that they’re the two most efficient shot selections of the three-point era.

Although they were both on the extreme ends of efficiency in terms of offensive decision making, the Nuggets and Rockets went about things in different ways. Both teams abhorred mid-range jumpshots, and their percentage of shot attempts used on long two-pointers, 12.9% for the Rockets and 15.8% for the Nuggets, were the lowest for the past 12 seasons. But in avoiding those inefficient shots, they went in two directions. 30.8% of the Rockets true shot attempts were three-pointers this season, the second most in the league behind the Knicks. Meanwhile, 41.9% of the Nuggets’ shot attempts came at the rim, by far the best percentage in the league. The second best mark in the league did belong to the Rockets, at 35.5%. So while the Rockets avoided inefficiency primarily by retreating behind the three-point line, the Nuggets headed for the rim at unprecedented rates.

Each team used ultra-efficient shot selection to compensate for a different weakness. The Nuggets a lacked a single player with enough offensive firepower to unilaterally destroy a defense. What they had was a collection of talented, if slightly more limited offensive players, who’s abilities they maximized by hammering them into that ultra-efficient framework. The Rockets had that uniquely talented individual scorer in James Harden, but lacked the offensive depth that the Nuggets have. For them efficient shot selection was a way of scaffolding their limitations around Harden. In both cases the results were extremely successful as the finished the regular season as the 6th and 7th most efficient offenses in the league.

I did one other piece of analysis with these two team’s shot selections numbers, sparked by Daryl Morey’s comments about trying to increase variance in their playoff series against the Thunder by taking more three-pointers. Although three-pointers are an incredibly valuable shot because of the extra point each make earns, they’re made less frequently. In a large sample the inaccuracy and added value even out over time, making them worth the risk. But in a small sample size, three-pointers introduce a lot of instability to offensive output because of the reduced rate at which they put points on the board.

Although the quality of their shot selections and offensive efficiency were very similar, the fact that the Nuggets relied so heavily on interior shots made their offense more stable than the Rockets. I looked at the game-by-game offensive efficiency for each team this season and measured the variance. The Rockets’ variance in ORtg. worked out to 177.3, nearly twice as large as the Nuggets’ 95.7. That means that although the Rockets’ offense produced higher highs this season, it also produced lower lows. The reliance on the three-pointer made their offense less consistent on a night-to-night basis. If you’ve ever heard an announcer say a team “lives by the three, and dies by the three” they’re referring to this phenomenon in slightly more theatrical terms. Exploring this link between shot selection and variance in offensive efficiency is definitely on my summer to-do list.

Check back in next week and we’ll review the shot-selection numbers for team defense. Spoiler alert – there are some historic numbers to be found there as well.

In case you missed the link further up the page, all the team numbers I referenced can be found here.

 
Although we spend our time writing about basketball, we’re a diverse bunch here at Hickory-High, with interests that extend far beyond the hardwood. Kyle Soppe, our resident archivist of statistical minutiae, also happens to be a devoted disciple of fantasy sports. If you follow Kyle on Twitter, @unSOPable23, you know that besides his work here he writes frequently about fantasy baseball and football for a variety of websites.

Kyle has kicked that fantasy sports analysis up a notch and this week is releasing his own 90-page fantasy football preview magazine, Stats for Sundays, looking ahead to the upcoming 2013 season. Chock full of analysis, rankings and projections; the magazine also includes an original statistical metric – translating the idea of “quality starts” from fantasy baseball to measure the consistency of fantasy football production.

This season the magazine is available only as a hard copy. You can snag yours at Amazon, or by contacting Kyle directly if you’d like to avoid having a percentage of the sale heading into the hands of an internet commerce behemoth. If you’re not a twitterer, send him an email at KylePickinSplinters@rochester.rr.com. The cost is a measly $9, which can easily be recouped by using his insights to dominate your league. Whether you play fantasy football, or are just fan of statistical analysis and the entrepreneurial spirit, get your copy and start rolling in the knowledge.

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Stephen Curry has been on an absolute tear since the All-Star break, keeping his career-long ankle troubles from holding back the barrage of threes and slick dimes that have wreaked havoc around the league with no end in sight. His name no longer unknown, (we can’t be friends if it took you this long to realize who he was) Curry is now perched on the “superstar” pedestal, being only 25 years of age and yet dominating the NBA with ease. His averages on the year: 22.9 PPG, nearly 7 assists a night on 45.3% shooting from downtown and 90% from the free throw stripe. However, like most superstars, Curry is not an unstoppable force and can be contained when defended correctly. Let’s dive in, using footage from Games 2 and 3 against San Antonio in the second round of these Playoffs.

Pick & Roll

The focal point of Curry’s attack has been the pick-and-roll, where 32.1% of his offense is created, according to mySynergySports. Curry attempted the most threes out of the pick-and-roll compared to any other categorized play, shooting 43.9% on 173 shots from behind the arc. His defender going under the screen allows too much space for a Curry jumper, and when he goes over the pick his big man needs to step up and not allow Curry the three-point look. Big men will oftentimes be too slow to react or merely show and drop back, which usually ends up as three points on the board for Golden State.

 
Tim Duncan hesitates before stepping up to contest Curry, and it costs San Antonio three early points. In the closing quarter of this same game, Tiago Splitter awaits Curry around the screen and forces a tie up.

 
When a screen is called for Curry, the best way to counterattack it is with a trap or a switch in which the big gets right up on Curry. The Miami Heat are the league’s chief user of the pick-and-roll trap, and in Curry’s single game against them this season, he only attempted 10 shots and 3 threes with a 45% eFG% compared to his season averages of 17.8 FGA, 7.7 3PA and a 54.9% eFG%. A one-game sample size means nothing really, but it’s something to consider. As for the risk of Curry easily blowing by a big man coming up to meet him, I’ll address this in my next point.
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Force Curry inside

As deadly as Stephen Curry is from the perimeter, the same cannot be said for when he attacks the rim. Blame it on his skinny frame or ankle troubles but Curry is a very poor finisher near the basket. Notice his shooting percentages at the basket and right near it during the regular season:

These percentages have been no better during the postseason:

Thus, a continuous thread throughout this post is forcing Curry inside. Obviously wide open layups are never shots you want to give up, but with the right amount of help, Curry will struggle to find his mark. There is always the threat of him finding the open man as Steph has tremendous court vision and passing ability, but this is something that will have to be dealt as your primary concern in defending Golden State is shutting down Curry. Danny Green has the right idea in the clip below, sticking right to Curry and not giving him any room for a jumper.

 
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Spot in transition

According to Synergy, the transition game is where Curry finds the next biggest portion of his offense, behind only the pick-and-roll. It’s easy to understand why, with Steph flourishing from behind the arc on fast breaks or semi-fast breaks, shooting an unconscious 52.3% from downtown. This is a product of late reactions from the transition defenders, not realizing that Curry is on the break and that he will launch the ball from deep and will likely make it. Watch Danny Green and Tim Duncan allow Curry the space he needs to drain a three:

 
The key here is to spot Curry whenever the Warriors are on a break and send one man over to guard him. Even if this results in a lay-in, the three-point shot would have been prevented. Watch how Danny Green eyes Curry before he crosses halfcourt here, and is able to stop him from creating anything out of this semi-break:

 
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Off-ball defense

The Warriors will often put point guard Jarrett Jack in the game to run the offense with Stephen Curry running around screens to get open looks. Curry’s quickness and agility are hard to match, so the best course of action here is to simply switch on any off-ball screens or crowd him, making it more difficult for him to maneuver about. Watch Bonner here leave his man in a switch to go meet Curry at the catch, restricting the open three and instead forcing Steph to create something inside, where Harrison Barnes makes a terrific random cut to draw the foul.

 
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He’s still Stephen Curry

Like all superstars, you’re going to have to deal with getting beat sometimes. Even defended perfectly, the best scorers in the game will still find a way to burn you. Curry is no different, and sometimes you need to just take it and move on to the next play:

 
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That being said, he safely resides in the next tier of point guard and is more than capable of heading a championship level team. I hardly have the NBA experience of Allen, but as a reasonably efficient high school point guard in my day (Kyle Soppe, the pAssman), here are my PG rankings with a regular season Conley (25 years old) related tidbit for each. It is important to note that these rankings are for next season. This isn’t a “you’re starting a franchise now and need a point guard” list, but rather a snap shot as to where we stand at the PG position for the 2014 regular season.

1. Chris Paul (28 years old) – Regardless of where he plays, he is simply the gold standard when it comes to properly running an offense. The six time All-Star and four time All-NBA Defensive team member has a career 4.03 assist to turnover ratio, 25.2% better than Conley’ best season.

2. Russell Westbrook (24 years old) – The explosive leader of the Thunder has the ability to do things athletically than Conley simply will never be capable of. Westbrook’s shot selection is as criticized as anybody’s, but his FG% over the last two seasons (44.7%) is better than any season Conley has ever produced in the NBA.

3. Kyrie Irving (21 years old) – The general public seems to have forgotten just how special (brief reminder) this former Blue Devil is just because he isn’t still playing. He’s a high level athlete that has playmaking abilities and instincts than cannot be taught. Since leaving college, Irving has scored 1.25 points per FGA while Conley has averaged 1.20 over the same stretch.

4. Stephen Curry (25 years old) – Yes, I’m buying this postseason breakout to a greater degree than that of Conley. We all know that Curry has arguably the sweetest stroke we’ve ever seen, but he is far from a one trick pony. In fact, the baby-faced Curry has muscled up for 30% more rebounds than Conley over his career and holds the edge in steals per game.

5. Derrick Rose (24 years old) – Say what you will about this season, but Rose at full health is as tough a cover a there is in the league. His size and athleticism demand the attention of the opposing team’s best defender (players like Tony Allen), thus creating mismatches for his teammates. All you have to do is look at his 2010-2011 season to realize that his ceiling is significantly greater than that of Conley. In Rose’s MVP campaign he scored 2,026 points, a 70 point edge over Conley’s total number of points scored in the last two seasons combined. Scoring is his greatest attribute, but he does average 23.6% more assists per game over his career than the Grizzlies’ guard.

OK, so that settles the debate over the top five point guards in the league today. Conley has been excellent this postseason and is developing into a very good point guard, but he simply isn’t in the class of the five listed above. I’d listen to an argument at placing him anywhere in this next tier of PG’s, but I’ve got him sandwiched between Holiday and Williams.

6. Rajon Rondo (27 years old) – It is entirely possible that Conley is playing at a top-five level (based on his hot streak and the rash of injuries among the PG’s ranked above him), but that wasn’t the quote. Rondo is the best table setter in the league (149 more assists than Conley over the past two season despite playing 51 fewer games) and among the best defensive options at the point. Those qualities are well known, but did you know that since Conley entered the NBA in 2007-2008, Rondo actually averages more FGM per game (5.02 to 4.60)?

7. Tony Parker (30 years old) – The elder statesmen of this strong crop of point guards will turn 31 in less than a week, but Parker is showing more signs of improvement than decline. His experience is a factor that cannot be measured statistically, so let’s stick with some numbers. As a five-star recruit, Conley was part of a loaded Ohio State team that lost in the national championship. During that season, Conley shot 51.8% from the field against comparatively inferior competition for the most part. Parker has shot a higher percentage from the field than that in two of the last three seasons.

8. Ty Lawson (25 years old) – His choice in headband style may be declining, but every other statistic is on the uptick for this road runner. In each season of his budding career, Lawson has increased his point, assist, and steal totals. His extreme speed is an advantage he holds over nearly every point guard in the league, making the fact that he owns a better career 3P% than Conley icing on the cake. I trust Lawson’s ability to penetrate/create a bit more and believe that he is a slightly tougher matchup on the perimeter.

9. Jrue Holiday (22 years old) – It is easy to forget just how young the 76ers leader is, especially when you consider the increasing maturity of his game. This past season saw Holiday tally 17.7 points and 8.0 assists on a nightly basis, numbers that may define the ceiling for Conley. When comparing Holiday’s 2012 season totals with the totals from when Conley was 22 years old (424 more points and 200 more assists), it is clear that Holiday is on the fast track to ascend to the top of this second tier. After a strong campaign in his first season as the 76ers go-to player, Holiday proved more than capable, a quality that is hard to find in players (especially point guards) his age.

10. Deron Williams (28 years old) – It feels like DWill was atop this list not very long ago, and while he has dropped off a bit, he still deserves to be considered a strong option. He has developed a lethal outside game (169 3PM this season, three more than Conley over the last two seasons), allowing him to stretch defenses and thus create single coverage situations in the paint. Williams has a higher scoring upside than Conley but lacks general consistency on both ends to still be considered with the best PG’s in the league.

This list doesn’t include Damian Lillard (need to see more), Ricky Rubio (my favorite player, but he’s a poor man’s Rondo at this point), or whoever you consider to be the point guard in Milwaukee (inefficient and lacking the ability to lead a team).

What did I get wrong? Tony Allen has forgotten more today than I know about basketball, but is he too close to the situation to properly analyze where his teammate ranks? Or am I just off my rocker and failing to accept that Memphis is home to an elite point guard? I’d love to hear your thoughts (@unSOPable23) and see how you’d rank the top point guards in the NBA for 2014.

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I’ve built visualizations which allow you to explore, sort and filter the XPPS numbers for players, team offenses and team defenses. I know those interactive graphs can be a little overwhelming so I wanted to pull out some of the most interesting numbers from this season and go a little bit deeper with them. Today we’ll be looking at some of the shot selection numbers for individual players, with analysis of teams to follow in subsequent posts.

This first table shows the players with the ten highest and lowest-value shot selections, as measured by XPPS. I separated the players into three groups based on their USG%, to differentiate between players with different roles.

As we mentioned above players over and under-perform the expected values of their shot selection all the time, which is a big factor in evaluating whether they truly understand their offensive roles and strengths. This next table shows the same 60 players, but instead of their XPPS I’ve listed their Shot Making Difference, which is the difference between their XPPS and their Actual Points Per Shot. You can see some players who take high-value shots, but don’t necessarily make them, as well as players who make a lot of low-value shots, usually long two-pointers.

The extent to which XPPS is useful in evaluating shot selection is pretty limited if you don’t also understand the context of their skills, limitations and responsibilities within the team’s offensive structure. Here are few of those numbers, both good and bad, with the context more fully fleshed out.

The Good 

LeBron James – 1.079 XPPS (8th best in the >24 USG% bracket), +0.202 Shot Making Difference – What James did this season in the scoring efficiency department this season was simply incredible, increasing his FG% from essentially every area of the floor. However, he exponentially raised the impact of those gains in accuracy by improving his shot selection as well. Last season 37.9% of James’ shot attempts were long two-pointers. This season that percentage fell to 29.7%, with big increases in both shots at the rim and three-pointers. He made shots at an incredible rate this season, but he also made an incredible effort to make sure he was taking the right shots.

Tyreke Evans – 1.119 XPPS (5th best in the 19-24 USG% bracket), -0.002 Shot Making Difference – For his first few seasons in the NBA, Evans was the poster boy for unconscionable shot selection. A sensational rookie season was met with criticism of his inconsistent outside shooting. Over the next two seasons Evans seemed determined to prove those critics wrong, spending more and more time outside the paint, and in the process, proving those critics right by missing mountains of jumpshots. This season, he made some huge changes and it showed up in his scoring efficiency. First off, he became a consistent three-point shooter, knocking down 34.2% compared to a previous career high of 29.1%. Also, for the first time in his career he attempted more three-pointers than long two-pointers. Those inefficient and inaccurate mid-range shots made up just 16.7% of his shot attempts this season, by far the lowest percentage of his career. We always find time to celebrate the players who become better shooters, but we should also find time to celebrate players, like Evans, who become better decision makers.

J.J. Hickson – 1.111 XPPS (8th best in the 19-24 USG% bracket), 0.070 Shot Making Difference – Hickson is another player, like Evans, who made dramatic improvements in offensive efficiency by making dramatic improvements in offensive decision making. Last season 51.0% of Hickson’s shot attempts came at the rim. This season that number jumped to 65.3%. By being more selective with his long two-pointers, he also became more accurate. Last season he shot 30.5% in that zone, where this season he made 47.3% with a whopping 71% of his makes being assisted on. Concentrating on what you do well can yield tremendous benefits.

Tyler Hansbrough - 1.135 XPPS (2nd best in the 19-24 USG% bracket), -0.081 Shot Making Difference - How does a player who shoots below the league average from every area of the floor end up with a TS% above the league average? Free throws. Hansbrough took 361 shots from the field this season and 263 free throws. Only Dwight Howard and Reggie Evans had a higher ratio of FTA/FGA. He’s not a great finisher or shot maker from anywhere, but he has really focused on his strengths – getting to the rim and getting to the line. That FTA/FGA ratio was a career-high, nearly 50% higher than in any of his previous seasons. This was also the first season of his career where he attempted more shots at the rim than long-two pointers.

The Bad

Dirk Nowitzki, Elton Brand, Chris Kaman – 0.946 | 0.950 | 0.951 XPPS (3rd, 2nd and 4th worst in their respective USG% brackets) – There is an absolute benefit to having players, especially big men, who can step out and knock down a mid-range jumper. It’s a pressure valve for an offense and can really buoy the efficiency of a group against tough defenses. The problem is when that shot becomes the centerpiece of the offense. Nowtizki is one of the best mid-range shooters in the history of the NBA and having him take that shot on a regular basis won’t break the offense. But the Mavericks stacked their front court with mid-range shooters the entire offense suffered. Last season when Nowitzki was on the floor 21.5% of his teammates’ shots were long two-pointers. This season, alongside Brand and Kaman, 26.8% of his teammates’ shots were long two-pointers. Even making those shots at an above average rate, as Brand, Kaman and Nowitzki can do, provides less efficient scoring that a multitude of other options. The Mavericks’ offense this season was a perfect example of the lesson that, “just because you can make a shot doesn’t mean you should take a shot.”

Evan Turner – 0.973 XPPS (8th worst in the 19-24 USG% bracket), -0.17 Shot Making Difference – Making 36.5% of his three-pointers this season was a big step forward for Turner. He’s also settled into a nice, accurate groove on long two-pointers, making 42.3%. The problem, as always, is balance. This was the third season of Turner’s career, and the third in which his ratio of long two-pointers to shots at the rim was roughly 2-to-1. Those long two-pointers made up nearly half his shot attempts this season and still outnumbered his newly accurate three-point shots by more than 3-to-1. He also shot a career low 47.9% on shots at the rim this season, where the league-average was 64.7%. Turner is a respectable mid-range shooter, but that shot just isn’t efficient enough to be the foundation of a richly versatile offense game. The bottom line is that he simply can’t be a viably efficient offensive player with this shot selection.

Tayshaun Prince – 0.963 XPPS (5th worst in the <19 USG% bracket), 0.008 Shot Making Difference – At this point in his career Prince’s offensive contributions come almost exclusively as a spot-up shooter. For most players this would equate to a lot of three-point attempts, but this season he attempted four times as many long two-pointers as three-pointers. Prince’s three-point attempts per 40 minutes this season were at a career low and even declined further as he moved from Detroit to Memphis. It’s a shame because Memphis is in desperate need of floor spacing and Prince has the skills to have a Shane Battier-like effect in that department. But to make that really work he needs to move a step or two back.

Andrew Nicholson – 0.954 XPPS (4th worst in the 19-24 USG% bracket), +0.154 Shot Making Difference – Including Nicholson on this end of the list may be a little unfair. He actually had a really solid rookie season and proved himself to be a reliable perimeter threat, both spotting up and as the screener in the pick-and-roll. Although his shot-selection looks terrible, with 45% of his shot attempts coming on long two-pointers, he drastically over performed the expected value of his shots and finished the year shooting 43.8% on those long twos. Although his XPPS puts him in the bottom ten, his actual points per shot were higher than Tyler Hansbrough’s, who ranked in the top ten in XPPS. He has the potential to be a supremely better version of Brandon Bass, but if he really wants to push the bounds of his efficiency it would be worth it for him to work on stretching his range out past the three point line. Nicholson didn’t attempt a single three-pointer this season, but shot a reasonable 34.0% from 20-24ft. Besides the added value of potentially earning three points per shot attempt, adding a few feet to his range will also open some considerable space in the paint for his teammates.

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Heart does not win basketball games on it’s own however, and early on Nate Robinson was far from a perfect basketball player. An undersized two-guard with an itchy but inaccurate trigger finger, Robinson wouldn’t have been receiving minutes had he not been on some of the most dismal Knicks teams in history. His stat line as a Knick is far from extraordinary – 12 points per game in 24 minutes a night, with an eFG% of under 50%. The only reason people knew his name back then was because of his dunk contest appearances. Nate won three All-Star Slam Dunk Contests, in the years 2006, 2009 and 2010. Robinson was known as a transcendent athlete early on in his NBA career, along with a careless chuck with no clue how to run a proper offense or defend anybody. His athleticism may be the most impressive portion of his game, as a 5’9″ player in the NBA, you’re not expected to be dunking on unsuspecting defenders, let alone even play in this league. However, his relentless attitude can’t be fazed thanks to his build, because he’s a damn freak of nature who seemingly never gets fatigued, never takes too hard of a hit, and can race by or plow through you.

His game itself needed improving though, and that wouldn’t happen at any significant or fundamental level in the situations he was placed in while playing in New York. Sure his scoring efficiency took a turn from horrendous when he first came in to below average as his career progressed, but that didn’t immediately make him a worthwhile player. After having to deal with having four coaches in five seasons, Robinson found himself benched by Knicks head coach Mike D’Antoni in the 2009/2010 NBA season. Nate didn’t play for an entire month, and in typical Nate Robinson fashion dropped 41 points on 24 shot attempts against the Hawks on the road in his first game back. He was traded to the Boston Celtics later that season, where he proved that he could provide a positive impact to a championship-caliber team under head coach Doc Rivers.

In Boston, Robinson’s minutes per game were cut down by ten, but with the help of Rivers he refocused his game to become more of a controlled spark plug, energizing the house without burning it down all together. Nate’s USG% took a dip, but his TO% did the same. His STL% and REB% were improved, as Nate started taking advantage of his athleticism without having to score the ball. In Boston, compared to his stats as a Knick that season (per-36 minutes), he attempted less field goal attempts but more threes a night, becoming a strong spot-up threat (and every so often a pull-up three in transition, because he’s still Nate) and shooting 41.4% from long range as a Celtic. Come Playoff time, Nate faced his first taste of postseason basketball, and it remained nothing more than a taste. Robinson played 17 of 24 Celtic Playoff games during their run to a Finals loss, playing fewer than eight minutes a night. However, Nate showed the league and himself something Chicago has come to learn, he can win you Playoff games.

In a closeout Game 6 in the Eastern Conference Finals, Nate Robinson came off the bench to score 13 points in 13 minutes, sparking a Boston win and a trip to the NBA Finals. There, Nate Robinson followed up with a ridiculous display coupled by fellow bench-mate, and the Shrek to his Donkey, Glen Davis, dropping 12 points in 16 minutes of action, half of those points in nine minutes of game time in the tight fourth quarter. Although it wasn’t a stunning exhibition, it felt as if a message was sent. Robinson could play in this league. Yet why did things go downhill from here?

The following season, Boston shipped off Robinson to Oklahoma City as a throw-in in the Kendrick Perkins – Jeff Green trade. Robinson’s numbers mirrored the ones he put up as a Celtic the previous season. The deal went down in late February, and for the rest of the year Robinson checked into the ball game just four times. The Thunder’s run to the Western Conference Finals that postseason included Nate Robinson for a total of just ten minutes. Once the lockout came and went, it seemed Robinson’s career was at a standstill. As a free agent, no team came calling for his services, and it wasn’t until about a week and a half following the shortened season’s opener that a team finally decided to give Nate a shot. This came only after worries grew over Stephen Curry‘s re-injured ankle, their starting point guard. Golden State would never find themselves regretting the signing, as Robinson performed to the point where 2011-2012 was arguably the best campaign of his career at the time.

In 51 games as a Warrior, Nate Robinson took on a new weapon in his offense arsenal – dishing the rock. Robinson’s AST% reached a career high at 31.8% on the year, yet to be matched. Nate played 23 minutes a night and averaged 11.2 points and 4.5 assists, per-36 minutes this equates to a 17 and 7 average for the developing Robinson. His eFG% was under a 50% mark for the fifth time in seven seasons, so his gunner attitude when looking to score the ball remained a hindrance. Once his season with the Warriors included, without a Playoffs appearance, Robinson was yet again a free agent.

Once again, a team desperate for point guard depth (although calling Nate a point guard is rather imprecise) signed Nate Robinson – the Chicago Bulls awaiting the return of their superstar floor general Derrick Rose. After an atrocious showing by rookie Marquis Teague at the Las Vegas Summer League, Chicago picked up Robinson as insurance and 90 games later he’s a focal point of their Playoffs run. Robinson spent the majority of the regular season coming off the bench and producing similar basketball as he did in Golden State. However, his efficiency improved this time around. Both his TS% and eFG% were above 51% for just the third time in his career, in a season where he had the second-highest USG% of his career. Once the Playoffs arrived, with Marquis Teague playing miserable ball and Derrick Rose’s timetable a question mark, Chicago’s season was for a large part in Nate Robinson’s hands.

These past eight Playoff contests, seven against the Brooklyn Nets and one on the road against the defending champion Miami Heat, would prove to be Robinson’s toughest challenge in this league yet. How he responded baffled experts, stunned fans, left opponents’ heads spinning and was incredibly fun to watch. Robinson has averaged 18.3 points and 4.3 assists a game on 50% shooting. On the advanced statistics side, his TS% and eFG% are career high marks, while playing in the biggest moments of his career, at 59.7% and 57.1% respectively. He’s started the past four contests with replacement starter Kirk Hinrich suffering an injury, and as a whole his performance in these Playoffs have made Derrick Rose’s absence (2011 NBA MVP, by the way) seem closer to moot than anyone would have guessed:

Whenever Chicago has called upon Robinson, he’s stepped up. Pivotal Game 4 against Brooklyn? 34 points on 23 shots, including a ridiculous fourth quarter comeback fueled by the man himself, in which he scored 23 of his points. Opening game against the defending champs tight down the stretch with the offense a mess? Not a problem for “Nate the Great” as he dropped 27 points on 16 shots, 11 of those points in the closing quarter. It’s been the year of Nate Robinson, one in which we have almost forgotten about the youthful, obnoxious nincompoop and instead have grown accustomed to watching a stronger, more resilient and grown man doing what he does best. And that’s balling his heart out.

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Kent Bazemore, Golden State Warriors

His fellow teammates filled his car with popcorn because he’s just a dumb rookie, but consider this: The Warriors have won every playoff series in which Kent Bazemore plays. If that trend continues, they should apologize and fill his car with diamonds.

James Jones, Miami Heat

Remember when James Jones was the best three-point shooter in all the land? Then one day, he came to work and Ray Allen was parked in his spot.

Vladimir Radmanovic, Chicago Bulls

There is not much garbage time in Chicago. Ask Luol Deng. That makes playing time even more precious for Vladimir Radmanovic. The native of Bosnia and Herzegovinia played in 25 games this season, though he only played more than 10 minutes in six. The first game of the Bulls’ season, a 29-point win over Cleveland, was a typical Radmanovic outing: Less than three minutes, three points and a foul. Only once did Radmanovic get meaningful minutes: an April game against Orlando, the fifth in seven nights, with five Bulls injured. Radmanovic shot perfectly from the field, finishing with seven points, four rebounds, two assists, two steals and a block. Most of those stats were season highs. We haven’t seen Radmanovic in the playoffs yet, and with the Bulls in a close series with the Nets, we may not ever.

The man they used to call Vlad Rad is a former Most Improved Player and major contributor to the Sonics (RIP), Clippers and Lakers, but he fell off after a snowboarding injury. At least he’s been better than Derrick Rose this year right?

Robert Sacre, Los Angeles Lakers 

In a sign that he’s really not ready, Robert Sacre hardly got any burn in the playoffs, though most of his teammates ate fruit from the same appendage-destroying tree. But Sacre may be one of the best bench celebrators in the league. The folks over at Believe the Hype NBA even made a mix of his antics. He has a ways to go before he can unseat Ronny Turiaf, but he’s only 23, so the potential is there.

 
Tyshawn Taylor, Brooklyn Nets 

While Robert Sacre is a force for joy, Tyshawn Taylor is more of a brooding victory cigar, the kind hanging off the lips of a hardboiled detective in a black-and-white movie. Basically he’s a whiner. He’s griped on Barclays Center TV-to his own employers-about his lack of playing time. He’s shown flashes in limited opportunities, but he’s also shown the opposite of flashes in many more outings.

Jeremy Lamb, Oklahoma City Thunder

After playing in 20 wins and 3 losses during the regular season, Jeremy Lamb might be the most victorious cigar of them all. Lamb’s fortunes changed drastically after the Houston Rockets chose him 12th in the 2012 draft and traded him to the Thunder. He went from a young, rebuilding team to a championship contender, where playing time was scarce. Lamb has played almost exclusively in blowouts. The one exception was a 41-minute stint against the Bucks. He struggled, shooting 6 for 21. However, he has been killing it in the D-League.

Ben Hansbrough, Indiana Pacers 

Possible nicknames: Hansbroughbrough, Psybro B, Lil’ Crazy. Ben Hansbrough is obviously most famous for being Tyler’s younger brother. As crazy as Tyler Hansbrough is, playing with his younger brother makes him even crazier. Remember that time Tristan Thompson elbowed Ben in the face? Psycho T went bananas, as Ben’s eyes glazed over, like your grandpa who was in the war. Ben actually played 17 minutes that game, but he’s been relegated to mop-up duty in the playoffs. But if the Pacers really need a bench spark, they can send Ben toward J.R. Smith‘s elbow.

 
James White, New York Knicks

If you haven’t watched much of Knicks, Mike Woodson does this weird thing where he’ll start a guy, play him a few minutes and then never play him again. James White played that role 16 times, because J.R. Smith can’t play well unless he sits first, I guess. Anyway, White is probably best known as a major dunker, though he failed to show it the slam dunk contest. He can use those hops for celebrating his teammates’ buckets.

Tony Wroten, Memphis Grizzlies

More small sample size fun: Tony Wroten has a team-high .630 TS% in the six minutes he’s logged in the playoffs. Fire Lionel Hollins right?

Anthony Randolph, Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets were the latest team to try to crack the nut that is Anthony Randolph, that maddening package of limbs and potential. Randolph veers wildly between seeming like the second coming of Kevin Garnett and then, on the next play, an amateur stiltwalker. And yet, I want to believe.

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Because on April 3, 2010 things one freak accident changed the career of a player that was quickly becoming second to only Ray Allen on my list of personal favorites.

Before that fateful day Andrew Bogut was doing everything he could to carry that special “Fear the Deer” mishmash of players to what looked like a potential first round playoff victory and the designation of a team people didn’t want to see in the playoffs.

Then everything changed.

Bogut slipped off a Milwaukee rim and came crashing down, destroying his right arm. Elbow, wrist, hand; everything was just a mangled mess.

Finally after another freak injury on March 13, 2012, this time to his ankle, put Bogut out of action, the Bucks decided it was time to move on, trading him to the Golden State Warriors for a package built around Monta Ellis.

It was move, universally questioned. How could the Bucks give up such a dominant inside force just because of a few freak injuries and pair their small, ball dominating, streaky-shooting point guard with a small, ball dominating, bad-shooting, two-guard?

Bogut can never stay healthy was the answer that was eventually settled on. The Bucks couldn’t trust him to do so.

Now, finally healthy again, Bogut is the dominant inside force on a running, gunning Warriors team capturing everyone’s imagination after dismantling the Denver Nuggets in a six-game series.

Bogut averaged 8.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.3 blocks and almost a steal a game in the series, capped off with a monstrous 14 point, 21 rebound, 3 assist, 4 block, 1 steal, 39 minute masterpiece in the series clincher.

The dominant defensive force, with a bit of a nasty streak and the incredible understanding of what every offensive player on the opposing team wants to do is back.

That “Fear the Deer” Bogut is back except this time he “Believes.”

The Bogut I wished would always be back has been back, and yet I can’t fully enjoy it.  Because deep down the thought that as this was building, I was watching Monta Ellis ruin things in Milwaukee still lingers.

This run should have been ours.

Monta didn’t exactly help when he Monta’d things up as the Bucks got swept by the Heat; shooting 43% from the field, 16% from the three-point line and 36% from the free throw line in the series.

The differences in the way the two players affected their series couldn’t be more perfect.

Monta, missing shots from everywhere on the floor, yet never stopping those shots from going up, while Bogut scoring when he gets a chance but mostly stopping Denver from relentlessly attacking the rim and finishing; one guy preventing his own team from getting good shots and scoring, while the other prevented his opponent from doing the same.

Bogut wouldn’t have helped this Bucks team defeat Miami, and he probably wouldn’t have allowed LARRY SANDERS!, the bright point an otherwise bleak Bucks season, to develop into the force he has today.

But what if he had been healthy? What if the run these Warriors were on now was instead a magical run those 2010 Bucks went on led by the big Aussie?

They probably wouldn’t have beaten the two-seed Orlando Magic, just like these Warriors probably won’t beat the two seed-San Antonio Spurs.

But maybe with the excitement built around that run things would have been a bit different. Maybe Brandon Jennings never becomes Monta light, as Bogut possibly found a way to reel him in. Maybe then the Bucks would have been on the upswing instead of the perpetual battle for the eight seed we seem to now find ourselves in, despite not having many young players on that roster. In the end, maybe nothing would have changed outside of a series win against the Atlanta Hawks we ultimately took to seven games.

But I wish we got to find out.

This isn’t to say I am not enjoying what Bogut is doing, because I am.

The rim protection, the passing, the general nastiness; I love it. Bogut is showing flashes that the old dominant force we all saw is still there. Maybe he only will be able to unleash it for a few games a year. It isn’t the perfect situation but one I would enjoy just for those dominant moments.

But every time I start to smile as he does something good I can’t help but shake that feeling.

This should have been the 2010 “Fear the Deer” Milwaukee Bucks. This should have been that Andrew Bogut.

This should have been us.