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Superstars are great to have, but a solid core of players wins in the playoffs. Thanks to the performance of two trios, the Celtics and Thunder were able to win game 2.

Celtics @ 76ers – Boston dominates from start to finish, winning 107-91

MVP’s: Boston’s updated big three of Rajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett, and Paul Pierce

All three players recorded a double double in three quarters of action, as this game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score may indicate. The C’s pulled away from the beginning of the second quarter to the end of the third quarter, outscoring the home team 61-33. During that 24 minute run, Rondo had 10 dimes and both KG and Pierce had a double digit point quarter. Glance at the box score and you will see Boston’s big three outscored the 76er starting five 74-36. That’s a 38 point difference in a hostile environment, in a crucial game. The 76ers maybe younger with more potential, but the 2012 playoffs aren’t concerned with the future, and if last night was any kind of indicator, the experienced Celtics have the edge in the present.

Lakers @ Thunder – Thunder can win ugly too, as they outlast the Lakers 77-75

MVP’s: The best healthy big three in the NBA; Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden

Only two days after the Lakers scored 90 points and lost by 29, a 29 point second half was just enough for the Thunder to take a 2-0 lead in the best of 7 series. OKC’s three studs combined for 50 points, including a remarkable 82.8% of the teams second half points. The importance of their scoring was magnified by the lack of scoring by their Laker counterparts, as the Los Angeles players playing PG, SF, and reserve SG combined for a mere 15 points 4/18 shooting. The Thunder trio added 16 rebounds, 11 assists, and 5 steals in the defense battle. OKC may be a young team, but their proven ability to win both the low scoring and high scoring games is a unique blend, and a big reason why they are currently the favorites to win the 2012 NBA title.

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If we have learned anything from the playoffs thus far, it is that the healthier teams tend to prevail. That was the case again last night, as the Heat struggled on the interior without Chris Bosh and the Clippers couldn’t compete for 48 minutes with a banged up Chris Paul.

Pacers @ Heat – Patient Pacers humble Heat, steal home court advantage with 78-75 victory

MVP: David West

West led a Pacer attack that was focused on exploiting the weak front line of the Miami Heat. He was the most consistent force on the Pacers, as he led the team in scoring (16 points) and minutes played (41). He was a large part of Indiana’s success on the glass, as he recorded 20% of their total rebounds. The +10 rebounding margin allowed the Pacers to slow the game down, and make it a low scoring affair, giving them a chance. If games are played around 190+ total points, the Pacers are in trouble, but if they can keep the total score in the 160 neighborhood, their chances of winning increase significantly. Another odd trend from this contest was the Pacers success in transition and the Heat’s lack there of. Indiana held Miami to 6 points on 6 shots on the break, despite turning the ball over 17 times. West didn’t increase that number at all, as he was the lone Pacer to play more than 5 minutes without committing a turnover. The high turnover number as a team is concerning for Pacer fans, but West’s ability to hold onto the rock is a positive, as the Heat rely on trapping the opposing bigs in order to get odd man breaks going the other way.

Clippers @ Spurs – Second half surge leads San Antonio to impressive 108-92 win

MVP: Tim Duncan

It took the Spurs a little bit of time to find their momentum after the long lay off, but they were able to find a rhythm and dominate the Clippers. San Antonio used their muscle to outscore LA by 12 in the paint and 11 on second chances, with old reliable leading the way. Duncan filled the stat sheet by shooting 60% from the field, scoring a game high 26 points, notching 10 rebounds, recording 2 steals, and swatting 2 shots. He scored 20 points and tallied 9 rebounds after a slow first quarter, as the Spurs won the final three quarters 79-63. Despite the MVP type season from Tony Parker, Duncan is the player Gregg Popovich is most comfortable with, and the more he is involved, the better. He took 20+ field goal attempts for only the second time this season, and I would look for that to continue as the experience of San Antonio looks to handle the youth of the Los Angeles.

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In Game Two, Philadelphia was able to hold off Boston’s fourth quarter rally in part because of their ability to stop Boston’s main options. Let’s take a look at how the Sixers adjusted their defense against the Celtics in the fourth quarter.

Defending Kevin Garnett

Perhaps due to Paul Pierce’s injury, the Celtics went to Kevin Garnett in the post throughout the fourth. At first, the Sixers were sending double teams at Garnett as he made his post move. However, Garnett was able to find the open man, and the Sixers’ defensive rotations couldn’t recover. Video of the Celtics attacking the double teams is below. In the first clip, the Sixers do a solid job of recovering, except Thaddeus Young takes his sweet time in closing out on Mickael Pietrus. In the second clip, the entire defense looks lost; either Evan Turner wasn’t supposed to leave Avery Bradley, or someone else should have rotated to Bradley.

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After these two baskets, Philadelphia stopped double-teaming Garnett and made him a one-on-one scorer. While being matched up with Spencer Hawes, Evan Turner, and Lavoy Allen, Garnett only scored once on his next five post-ups. Video of the strong Sixers post defense is below. Garnett’s lone score came when he hustled down the court and established great post position before the defense was set.

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Defending Ray Allen

As the game was winding down, the Celtics went away from Garnett and worked to free up Ray Allen for some quick points. On the play below, it looks as if Boston is simply spreading the floor to create space for a Rondo-Pierce pick-and-roll. Instead, Garnett sets a quick screen on an unsuspecting Jrue Holiday, as Rondo hits Allen with the pass. Video of the play is below.

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After Holiday got burned on that three-pointer, he wouldn’t lose sight of Allen again. On the next two Boston possessions, they tried to get Allen clean looks by running him off screens. Holiday did an excellent job of shooting the gaps instead of following Allen around the screens. Instead of continuing on his normal path, Allen would usually fade away from a defender that shot the gap, but he couldn’t on these plays because of the location of the screen and bad passing angle for Rondo. Video of Holiday’s great defensive effort is below.

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Randomness

Zach Lowe of Sports Illustrated has been repeatedly pointing out all of the blatant shoving of screeners that was going unnoticed by the referees, and this time, Kevin Garnett got caught in the act. As surprising as it was to see Garnett (finally) get called for an illegal screen in the waning seconds of the game, it was just as surprising to see him get whistled for this shove.

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The Sixers tied up the series by stopping Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen from doing what they do best. In Game Three, the Celtics might look to put Garnett into more pick-and-pops instead of simply posting him up.

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Statements were made by the 76ers and Thunder last night, and while they were made in very different fashions, they were equally impressive. The 76ers stole home-court advantage from the Celtics, and are now in a solid position to push this series to at least 6 if not 7 games. The Thunder were never challenged by the Lakers, proving just how far they have come in 2 short years.

76ers @ Celtics – 76ers even series with gutty 82-81 win

MVP: Lavoy Allen

As is typical in Philadelphia wins, contributions were abundant up and down the roster. Allen provided a strong punch off of the bench, as indicated by his game high +21 plus/minus ratio. He scored 10 points on 7 shots while grabbing a 8 rebounds (a game high 3 on the offensive end) in 30 solid minutes of action. He matched his first half point production in a third quarter that saw the 76ers seize control of the game. Take into account his 2 steals and 2 blocked shots, and you’ve got yourself the most valuable Sixer of the night, and potentially a matchup problem moving forward.

Lakers @ Thunder – Thunder dominate from opening tip on their way to a convincing 119-90 win

MVP: Russell Westbrook

The Lakers had plenty of problems defending Ty Lawson last series, and that defensive weakness was magnified by Westbrook last night. The OKC point guard played only the first three quarters, and his scoring output increased with every set of 12 minutes. His 76.2 TS% was as impressive as anything, as he slashed through the porous Laker defense without any problems. Westbrook led the loaded Thunder attack in plus/minus ratio (+27), assist to turnover ratio (9:1), and points (27). For good measure, he grabbed as many rebounds as Pau Gasol (7), a big reason why the Lakers only managed 11 second chance points, while the Thunder tallied 21. With Chris Bosh ailing for the Miami Heat and the lack of respect for the Spurs, OKC may very well be the public’s choice to win the first of what could be many titles in the Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook era.

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Kyle Soppe also writes about the NBA for Pickin’ Splinters. Follow him on Twitter.

On some nights, the MVP of a given game is tough to find, as the box score may not tell the complete story. This weekend several players stepped up in big ways, ending series and starting new ones on the right foot.

Thursday

Bulls @ 76ers – 76ers advance with 79-78 win

MVP: Andre Iguodala

Sure, the all-star made two free throws with 2.2 seconds remaining to win the game, but his impact was massive for the entire contest. He scored 25.3% of the teams points on only 16.4% of their field goal attempts, and did most of his damage when his teammates needed him most. In the fourth quarter, Iggy didn’t misfire once, netting 7 of the teams final 16 over the last 9:21. He easily led all players with 36 points produced, highlighted by his team high 7 dimes. The ball was in his hands for the majority of his 42+ minutes on the court, yet he didn’t record a single turnover against what is widely considered the league’s best defense. I’m not sure that the Celtics have somebody to match-up with Iguodala, as he could once again prove to be the deciding factor.

Hawks @ Celtics – Celtics advance with 83-80 win

MVP: Kevin Garnett

Close out a series in a game in which Ray Allen and Paul Pierce combine to shoot 6/18 from the field? Anything is possibleeeeeeee! Kevin Garnett turned back the clock and offered up a dominating performance when Boston needed it most. The veteran made more field goals (10) and snagged more rebounds (14) than rest of the Celtics front line combined for. He attempted as many free throws as the Hawks did, and was relentless in the paint. Garnett refused to settle for bad shots, resulting in his 62.1 TS%. His 5 blocked shots also out-did the Atlanta total, and enabled the Celtics to hold a 12 point edge in the lane. He was a step ahead of Atlanta all night long, as when they wanted to shoot, he was ready to pounce, and when they wanted to pass, he read the play like a book. His savvy led to a game high 3 thefts, and was a largely responsible for the athletic Hawks being held to a mere 80 total points. Garnett’s days of doing this 82 times in a season may be behind him, but the Celtics only need 12 more wins, and with KG playing at this level, it’s hard to count them out.

Lakers @ Nuggets – Nuggets force a game 7 with a convincing 113-96 victory

MVP: Ty Lawson

This game was never close, and the ex-Tar Heel’s hot shooting set the early tone. He tallied 8 of the games first 11 points (all of which went to Denver), the second straight game in which he has come out blazing. The Lakers never fully rebounded, as they trailed for the entire 48 minutes on Thursday. Lawson finished with a game high 32 points, registering an incredibly efficient 86.1 eFG%. He made all 4 of his first half three-pointers, and drove by the helpless Laker defenders when they over-pursued in the third. The result was a 13 point third quarter, and a safe 22 point advantage for the home team. Lawson spent the fourth quarter getting some well deserved rest, finishing with 32 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, and 0 turnovers in 30 minutes of action.

Friday

Grizzles @ Clippers – Grizzles front court forces game 7

MVP: Zach Randolph

Have we found “Mr.May”? All Z-Bo seems to do is produce in a massive way when the lights are the brightest in the postseason. The Grizzles’ big man led all players with 6 offensive rebounds and 16 total rebounds, on his way to enforcing his will on the interior all night long. He played his best when it mattered the most, as he tallied a game high 7 points in a fourth quarter that also saw him snare 4 offensive rebounds and block two shots. The Clippers had 60% of their players get at least one shot blocked, with Randolph leading the way with 3 shots swatted. Z-Bo is not more athletic than either Clipper big, but he has the body it takes to dominate, and he knows how to use it. He may have had 4 shots blocked, but he often stuck with the ball, resulting in layup. There may not be a more “valuable” player to his team, as the Grizzles feed off Randolph and will go as far as he can lead them.

Saturday

76ers @ Celtics – Celtics trail for most of game, storm back to take game 1, 92-91

MVP: Rajon Rondo

Kevin Garnett recorded a season high in points for the second straight game and Ray Allen led all players with a +17 plus/minus ratio, but it was Rondo that took over down the stretch. His eighth career playoff triple double (13 points, 17 assists, and 12 rebounds) was capped by a spectacular final 19 minutes, as he had a hand in 11 of Boston’s final 14 baskets. He  was the only player in this contest to record more than 2 offensive rebounds (he had 5) and matched Evan Turner for a game high 4 steals. Remember when the Celtics were the “Big 3 + Rondo”? Well, they are at their best nowadays when it is “Rondo + Big 3″.

Nuggets @ Lakers – Lakers defend home court, advance with 96-87 victory

MVP’s: Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum

We saw just how bad the Lakers can be on Thursday night, but on Saturday night we saw the team that many believe could be a sleeper in the West. Kobe Bryant is a great player, but this teams advantage lies with its extreme size and skill on the interior. Gasol and Bynum acted like a school bully taking the lunch money of the Nuggets, as the pummeled them for 39 points, 35 rebounds (20 offensive), and 10 blocked shots. The 20 offensive rebounds were 83.3% of the Lakers total o-boards, symbolizing just how valuable they were. They do two things most dominant big man don’t do … make free throws and stay out of foul trouble. The duo shot 81.3% from the charity stripe, making them nearly impossible to contain. The finesse of Gasol allows the starting front court of LA to affect the game from everywhere inside of the three point line, as he registered a game high 6:1 assist to turnover ratio. They averaged 42 minutes of action, and had enough gas in the tank to make 90% of their free throws in the fourth quarter. Kobe is the game’s best closer, but it is up to Gasol and Bynum to put this team in a position to close.

Sunday

Clippers @ Grizzles – Clippers dominate fourth quarter on way to 82-72 win

MVP: Kenyon Martin

In a game where offensive excellence was difficult to come by, Martin was the only player to record a double-double (11 points and 10 rebounds). With the help of Martin, the Clippers bench matched the point total (41) of the starters, saving Los Angeles in the process. Trailing by 1 point heading into the fourth quarter, the Clippers relied heavily on their bench, specifically Martin. He tallied 7 points, as Los Angeles outscored Memphis 27-16 despite getting 0 field goals from their starting unit. Kenyon Martin will not dominate a game, but without him, the Clippers would be arranging tee times instead of plane trips to San Antonio.

Pacers @ Heat – Heat sprint past Pacers with big second half, 95-86

MVP: LeBron James

The newly crowned MVP of the league found his rhythm in the second half, scoring 26 points as he played every second of the second half. His 32 points and 15 rebounds aided a Heat attack that took 16 more shots in the paint on their way to a 12 point advantage. The King added 5 dimes and only 1 turnover, as he was his typical do it all self to open this series. We all know that the Pacers are a great team that is missing a star, and if Miami’s star is going to play like this, Indiana can start making off-season plans.

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San Antonio has won 68% of the games in the Gregg Popovich era, including 9 division titles and 4 NBA championships. Tim Duncan gets labelled as one of the greatest power forwards in the proud history of the NBA, while Manu Ginobili is often viewed as the most irreplaceable Spur. But with Duncan on the decline and Ginboili’s reckless style of play leading to him missing 30+ games with injury in two of the last four seasons, how have the Spurs been able to stay atop the star-focused NBA?

Tony Parker, who will turn only 30 years old next week, managed to carry the Spurs to the best record in the Western Conference this season and a first round sweep of the Utah Jazz: but nobody is taking notice. His name is rarely mentioned in the MVP talks, and in a league that has vast depth at point guard, Parker isn’t thought of as an “elite” talent. The lack of a legitimate nickname speaks volumes about the limited attention he receives from national media. I’d like to submit for consideration, “Valet Parker “, who constantly delivers the ball where it needs to be.

The Spurs simply cannot shag the title of “fading contender”, but Parker’s best is yet to come. The 2012 season saw Parker’s efficiency improve in a dramatic way, as he set a career high Assist Rate at 39.64. His 7.7 assists per game were also a high mark in the Frenchman’s 11 years, but the most remarkable statistic lies not in his ability to set up his teammates, but in his ability to limit his giveaways. His TOR dropped by 1.16, his largest improvement over a single season. By taking care of the ball and distributing at an elite level, Parker registered his best assist to turnover ratio (3.03) of his time in the NBA. The efficiency was further supported by Parker’s PER rating of 22.10, a number that ranked him in the league’s top 15. He ranked above established stars like Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki and ahead of young studs like Kyrie Irving and James Harden. Still think he’s not among the best players in the game?

The best play makers in the league put their teammates in a position to succeed, and cash in when they have chances near the rim. Parker may not be considered a force in the painted area, but the stats tell a different story. When it comes to scoring, “Valet Parker  “ is among the game’s best. He shot 65.7% “at the rim” this season, ranking him just behind Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul, but ahead of Carmelo Anthony and Russell Westbrook. When he isn’t scoring in the paint, he is setting up his teammates. Tim Duncan isn’t viewed as a top notch forward any more, and Tiago Splitter is far from a proven commodity, but Parker recorded more assists at the rim per game (2.8) than Wade and Steve Nash. Heck, TP even set a career high in charges taken per game. In a league where athletic, rim rattling point guards are the latest fad, the 6’2” Parker dominates the lane in an old school fashion … with fundamentals. We’ve got a “little fundamental” on our hands, and the league/media should take notice. He makes the smart play, not the spectacular. He is the reason why the Spurs are very much a contender this year, and they should be considered such as long as Parker is rocking the Spurs’ black and silver.

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The Celtics were able to close out the Hawks on Thursday night, but Atlanta pushed them to the bitter end. Let’s take a look at Atlanta’s playcalling in the controversial end to Game Six.

With about 30 seconds remaining and the Hawks down by one, Josh Smith took a Josh Smith-esque shot that missed the mark and forced Atlanta to foul. Mike Prada of SB Nation detailed how the Celtics’ grabbing and holding prevented Atlanta from getting what they really wanted on the play: a Josh Smith post-up.

After Ray Allen made one free throw, the Hawks ran a side out of bounds play for Joe Johnson. It looked like they were trying to inbound the ball to Al Horford and perhaps handoff or fake the handoff to Joe Johnson, similar to the action they used against the Knicks during the regular season. Horford is denied the pass and Josh Smith comes to receive the pass. When he gets the ball back Johnson does a nice job beating Paul Pierce off the dribble, but his shot is blocked.

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Following the block, the Hawks called a timeout and had one of the more chaotic huddles of the season. Al Horford wants Larry Drew to draw up the play instead of talking about it, and there seems to be overall confusion and/or disinterest among the rest of the players. By the end of the huddle, it looks like Drew calls a different play that everyone knew, instead of the play that was being diagramed during the huddle. Here’s video of the huddle.

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During the actual play, Josh Smith and Jeff Teague set screens for Joe Johnson, who is running to the corner. The Celtics easily switched on the screens and covered Johnson. At that point, it is unclear where the action should be.  Josh Smith and Jeff Teague assume the ball will get to Johnson, and Horford is looking for someone to screen before he ends up drawing a foul on Marquis Daniels. Video of the play is below.  (Note: the audio is out of sync on the video, so the whistle did not occur that early during the game.)

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The Hawks should have been awarded with a free throw and possession of the ball, as Mike Prada explains over at SB Nation. The ball was clearly not yet inbounded when the foul occurred. However, without the bailout foul by Daniels, this play was pretty simple and easily handled by Avery Bradley’s switch. Personally, I was looking forward to Larry Drew calling a play that was run earlier in the season that worked perfectly (except for the missed layup) against the Nuggets.  Video of that play is below. Who said Larry Drew couldn’t draw up a mean inbounds play?

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On this play, even if the Celtics were to switch, Al Horford (taking the place of Zaza Pachulia in the play) could have sealed his man on his back and rolled to the hoop. Regardless, the play Drew called somehow worked.

After the foul, the Hawks had another side out of bounds play. Daniels is again matched up with Horford, and Atlanta takes advantage of it. Horford walks Daniels into the post, and while Daniels attemps to deny the ball, Horford seals him, creating a wide open lane. Josh Smith delivers a perfect lob, and Daniels is forced to foul to prevent a layup. Video of the play is below

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It turns out that if Al Horford didn’t have the opportunity to push around Marquis Daniels, the Hawks would have run an isolation for Joe Johnson. So the good news is that Hawks fans didn’t have to watch another Iso Joe. The bad news is that Horford couldn’t sink the free throws and the Hawks lost the series. Tough season for Atlanta, and one wonders what could have been if Horford wasn’t out for most of the year.

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The Philadelphia 76ers and Chicago Bulls played a close, but ugly, series that has finally ended. Let’s take a look at the final moments of Game Six and how a couple of strong individual efforts aided by defensive miscues.

With 30 seconds left, Chicago extended their lead by running a C.J. Watson-Omer Asik pick-and-roll. Asik set the screen well beyond the three-point line, and Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes attempted to trap Watson on the sideline. As Asik rolled to the hoop, both Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young were reluctant to leave their assignments, Luol Deng and Taj Gibson, respectively. It looks like Iguodala should have been the main helper on the play. Luol Deng was two passes away, and considering the trap, Watson would have had a very hard time making a good pass to Deng. Iguodala could have recovered to Deng if Watson managed to make the pass. Regardless, both Iguodala and Young are late, and Asik finishes his roll with a dunk.

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After a Thaddeus Young layup, and a questionable decision by C.J. Watson, Omer Asik headed to the free throw line with the Bulls up by one point.

Following Asik’s first missed free throw, Chicago had a choice to try for an offensive rebound on the second free throw or fall back and play defense. In Chicago’s strategy to try for the offensive rebound, they likely planned on at least creating enough chaos under the basket to waste a few seconds. Taj Gibson and Luol Deng battled for the rebound underneath and Chicago sent Ronnie Brewer in from the perimeter for good measure.

As Iguodala gets the rebound, Gibson and Deng were already pushed out of the play. However, the big problem was that Ronnie Brewer wandered too far into the lane in an attempt to crash the boards. He is somehow trailing Jrue Holiday when Iguodala starts his move up court.

As Iguodala heads up the floor, Holiday runs interference on Brewer, wiping him out of the play. That leaves Omer Asik to guard Andre Iguodala in the open court. Asik backpedals so far that he puts himself too close to the basket, and the only option is to foul Iguodala. The full play is below.

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It may not have been intentional, but the Sixers ended up boxing-out perfectly considering the game situation. Because they didn’t have any timeouts, it was important to get the ball to a capable ball handler as soon as possible. When Spencer Hawes wiped out Taj Gibson on the box-out, it left Andre Iguodala alone to get a clean rebound and head up the floor. Iguodala is uniquely talented enough to be crash the defensive boards and go coast-to-coast against a strong interior defender.

All year long, and through this series, the Bulls punished teams on the offensive boards. Unfortunately, it ended up costing them the game when they overextended their defense in an attempt to crash the boards.

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The Pacers closed out the Magic on Tuesday night, while the other three games saw the trailing team prevail.

Magic @ Pacers – Pacers win series with a 105-87 victory in game 5

MVP – Darren Collison

The true value in the Pacers’ style of play is that their opponent cannot possibly defend all of their weapons. They may lack a “super” star in today’s stud driven league, but with consistent production from their deep roster, they are a formidable opponent. Collison has been efficient of late, and he saved his best for the closeout game last night. Collison made 90% of his field goals, including his lone three-pointer, registering a game high 1.9 points per field goal attempt. He handed out 6 assists, compared to 1 turnover, and recorded a game high 3 steals. Collison came off the bench to pace Indiana, as they outscored the Magic 18-0 in transition. The reserve guard has 23 dimes and only the 1 turnover this postseason, making him the most efficient guard thus far. His solid play will give Indiana a shot in every single game, and he comes with relatively little risk.

Celtics @ Hawks – Hawks force series back to Boston with 87-86 win

MVP – Al Horford

A few short weeks ago, Horford seemed doubtful for even a deep playoff run. The Celtics would be resting for the second round if that was the case, as Horford controlled the play in the paint during Atlanta’s game 5 victory. His stat line was impressive (19 points, 11 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 blocked shots) but it was his end of the game defense on Rajon Rondo  that secured the victory. Off of a turnover by Josh Smith, Rondo raced down the court with time dwindling. He tried to beat Horford baseline after a pick, but Horford denied the penetration. His agility caused a sloppy crossover that carried Rondo away from the rim, and resulted in the Celtics not getting a shot off. The Hawks are filled with athletes, but the skill and health of Horford is vital to their success.

76ers @ Bulls – Bulls live to play another day with 77-69 victory

MVP – Luol Deng

Without the reigning MVP (Rose) and emotional leader (Noah), the Bulls turned to their “other” 2012 All Star to send the series to a sixth game. Deng responded in a big way, recording a 63.2 eFG% while attempting more shots than at any point in the past month. The play making of Rose? Deng filled the void by draining 4 three-pointers and slashing through the lane on a consistent basis. The tenacity and energy of Noah? Deng took on that role too, grabbing 8 rebounds, swatting 2 shots, and registering 2 steals. If I didn’t know any better, I think I saw Deng change in a phone booth on his way to the post game interview.  While a performance like this is all the Bulls fans can ask for, it has to be nauseating to think about the potential a healthy Chicago team had.

Nuggets @ Lakers – Nuggets dominate and manage to hold on late, beating LA 102-99 at Staples

MVP – Andre Miller

Forget MVP for the game, Miller has been the best Nugget this series. The reserve guard turned in another beauty, notching 24 points and 8 dimes in 28 minutes of action. His strength has given the Lakers’ back-court fits all series long, as they simply cannot prevent him from getting where he wants to on seemingly every possession. His 24 points came with a 81.2 eFG% while his 8 helpers came at the expense of only 1 turnover. He won’t make the game’s highlights, as he rarely makes the spectacular play, but he makes the correct play … every single time. The Nuggets are still facing an uphill battle, but with the best guard in the series, they’ve got more than a puncher’s chance at sending this to a decisive game 7.

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A simple snapshot of his first 61 games as a professional is not entirely satisfying, but also holds no sense of finality. He made three-pointers, 36.1% on 6.9 attempts per 36 minutes. He tallied nearly twice as many assists as turnovers, 108 to 67, and managed to claw his way into a steal every 36 minutes; an unexpected bonus from a guy who was supposed to be a horrific defensive liability. However, he also shot just 43.1%  on shots around the rim, attempted just 1.5 free throws per 36 minutes, and helmed an offense that was 4.2 points per 100 possessions worse when he was on the floor. He was not the offensive supernova we saw at BYU, but was a similar level of performance really expected, and how much does context have to do with what he was able to produce?

Like every other rookie Fredette did not have the benefit of summer league or a full training camp before he embarked on his professional adventure. Of course, that didn’t stop Kyrie Irving or Kenneth Faried from having incredibly productive seasons. However, Irving, Faried and most other rookies didn’t have their head coach replaced after 7 games, or play for one of the most stagnant and staccato offenses in the league. The problem is that one other rookie did face those same circumstances, Fredette’s teammate Isaiah Thomas. While Thomas shot the ball efficiently and brought some semblance of order to the chaotic Kings’ offense, all from the starting point guard position that was supposed to become Fredette’s, Jimmer moved slowly slid down in the rotation, playing fewer minutes and inhabiting an ever-shrinking offensive role.

This is the opposite of the trend most rookies see, as the grinding experience-acquisition of that first season usually leads to more opportunities come spring. Comparing Minutes Per Game over the course of the season for several high profile rookies highlights Fredette as an oddball.

With all of these lines, pulling expectations and viewpoints in different directions, we still find Fredette in the center. With all the certainty available to someone who did not watch every Kings game, I don’t think this rookie season was a disappointment. In fact I think he supplied exactly what we should have expected. He shot the ball well from the outside and displayed a measure of court-vision and creativity. He also struggled to translate many pieces of his offensive arsenal to the speed and athleticism of the professional game. That downward trend in his minutes was as much from the success of Thomas as it was from the slope of Fredette’s learning curve. The fact that Thomas took a leap, becoming much more than was expected, should not change the way we view what Fredette accomplished.

Regardless of the measure of satisfaction his rookie efforts brought, there is work to do for Jimmer Fredette. Some offensive gifts have yet to be deployed effectively, and others have yet to be acquired. As expected, defense is a work in progress. If  there is to be a developmental template, a recipe that he could follow to round out his game and find space as a consistent NBA contributor, I would posit that there may be no better choice than J.J. Redick. I know that on at first mention that comparison seems trite and distasteful. This connection is so easily drawn because of skin color and incredible shooting ability. But there’s more to it than that. By the numbers, no recent draft prospect had a more similar statistical profile to Fredette than Redick. In addition, Redick has worked hard to transform himself since coming into the NBA. All of the skills that he now utilizes on a nightly basis are the skills that Fredette needs to become consistent with as well.

Offense

Watching Fredette run the pick-and-roll could be an exhausting experience. With the advantages of hindsight and an elevated view, it’s clear his decision-making in these sets leaves a lot to be desired. Overall he averaged a respectable 0.86 points per possession in the pick-and-roll, but there appear to be opportunities for so much more. According to mySynergySports, Fredette attempted 109 shots this season out of pick-and-rolls. 91 of them, or 83.5%, were jumpshots; 43 of them, or 39.4%, were three-pointers. Below is a sampling of his pick-and-roll possessions from this season. In each there is an open lane, or at the very least an opportunity to put pressure on the defense and attack the basket.
 

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Fredette is a terrific shooter, especially off the dribble, so he can be forgiven to some degree for hunting jumpers in the pick-and-roll. In fact, the 44.2% he shot on three-pointers out of these sets is responsible for the bulk of his efficiency. The problem is the complete and utter lack of balance. He does a great job patiently setting up screens, and shows nice body awareness, rubbing his man off by getting as close as possible to the screen. But once he comes around and sees open space, overwhelming tentativeness sets in. He frequently appears to be looking for a way to back off and get his feet set for the baby-blanket comfort of a jumpshot as quickly as possible. The point of a pick-and-roll is to move the defense, but this only happens if the ball and the screener are both moving. Fredette doesn’t appear to be manipulating, or even anticipating, space that’s created out of these sets. He appears to stumble into it, unsure of what to do, and falling back on what he does best.

That hesitancy coming off a screen with the ball in his hand also makes Fredette more likely to give the ball away. He turned the ball over on 16.5% of his pick-and-roll possessions. The video below shows a variety of those pick-and-roll turnovers. You’ll see late passes to the screener, indecision and carelessness attacking with the dribble and hesitancy to shoot as he approaches the basket, all resulting in the ball going the other direction.
 

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This next video should be one that Fredette watches everynight this summer before he goes to bed. It shows J.J. Redick running the pick-and-roll for the Magic this season. You’ll see a healthy mix of jumpshots as well as forays to the rim to keep the defense honest. The defining themes are Redick sizing up the defense and making a quick assertive decision about where the ball should go.
 

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The pick-and-roll has become a huge part of what J.J. Redick does for the Magic on a nightly basis, and it will continue to be featured heavily on Fredette’s offensive menu. Redick has found a wonderful middle ground, throwing darts from the outside, keeping the defense honest by attacking the rim strong when the opportunity presents itself and intentionally moving defenders to create openings for his teammates. Fredette has the potential to be an incredible pick-and-roll player but he has to expand his attack to multi-dimensions.
 

Defense

 
Being slightly under-sized, lacking world-beating athleticism, and having displayed little defensive aggression in college it was expected that Fredette would struggle, possibly mightily, defending ball handlers. He was actually surprisingly effective in isolations, holding his opponents 0.67 points per possession on 57 possessions. But in the pick-and-roll Fredette’s rookie nature was exposed. The video below shows three representative examples of his pick-and-roll defense this season.
 

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I realize it’s a little unfair to judge his effectiveness by how he defends Chris Paul, but the flaws he displays here also showed against lesser pick-and-roll puppeteers. In all three of these plays Fredette either fails to anticipate the screen entirely, or gets fooled by a slight change. For example, in the first play when Kenyon Martin slips around simply sets the screen on the opposite he approached on. In each set Fredette is completely reactive and the execution of seasoned veterans takes him completely out of the play. Now watch Redick defend three pick-and-rolls involving Dwyane Wade and Norris Cole as ball handlers.
 

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In all three sets Redick is actively anticipating both the coming screen and the movement of the ball, and he’s able to pro-actively avoid or disengage, keeping himself in the play enough to challenge the shot. This is not the manifestation of some remarkable innate defensive understanding. As a rookie, Redick was just as reactive and off-balance as Fredette. He’s obviously put a remarkable amount of time and mental effort into practicing and visualizing how to handle these situations and he’s made himself into a terrific defender. On the season, ball handlers scored just 0.74 points per possession in pick-and-rolls against Redick, a testament to how far he’s come. There’s no reason that the same inputs of focus and effort on Fredette’s part can’t produce similar outputs in defensive results.

With Isaiah Thomas racing past and greedily snatching up game experience, Jimmer Fredette‘s rookie season may look like some sort of failure. But patience and context are the keys. Take your time machine back to last June and review what was expected. Jump back in, skip forward, and compare that to where he sits now. I believe you’ll find the difference is not as great as swiss-cheese memory makes it appear to be. Fredette is lacking a certain measure of blue-collar tenacity, confidence, and a physicality that will benefit him at both ends of the floor. But watching the development of J.J. Redick should leave you with the thought that his considerable ceiling is still well within reach.