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Western Conference Finals: Game 1 |
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Orlando Magic – 25.0% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Josh McRoberts‘ odds of knocking down consecutive corner three-pointers.
Josh McRoberts shot 52.6% on corner three-pointers for the Magic this season. The odds of him making two in a row would be (0.526 x 0.526 = 27.6%).
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Charlotte Bobcats – 19.9% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Byron Mullens‘ odds of making four consecutive free throws.
Byron Mullens shot 64.6% on free throws for the Bobcats this season. The odds of him making four in a row would be (0.646 x 0.646 x 0.646 x 0.646 = 17.4%).
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Cleveland Cavaliers – 15.6% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Kyrie Irving‘s odds of making consecutive three-pointers.
Kyrie Irving shot 39.1% on three-pointers for the Cavs this seasons. His odds of making two in a row would be (0.391 x 0.391 = 15.2%).
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Phoenix Suns – 11.9% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Markieff Morris‘ odds of making consecutive three-pointers.
Markieff Morris shot 33.6% on three-pointers for the Suns this season. His odds of making two in a row would be (0.336 x 0.336 = 11.2%).
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New Orleans Pelicans – 8.8% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Austin Rivers‘ odds of making four consecutive free throws.
Austin Rivers shot 54.6% on free throws this season. His odds of making four in a row would be (0.546 x 0.546 x 0.546 x 0.546 = 8.9%
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Sacramento Kings – 6.3% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as DeMarcus Cousins‘ odds of missing three consecutive layups.
DeMarcus Cousins shot 60.6% at the rim this season. That means he missed 39.4% of shots at the rim. His odds of missing three layups in a row would be (0.394 x 0.394 x 0.394 = 6.1%).
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Detroit Pistons – 3.9% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Greg Monroe‘s odds of assisting on consecutive made baskets by the Pistons.
Greg Monroe assisted on 18.6% of the Pistons made baskets when he was on the floor this season. His odds of assisting on two consecutive makes would be (0.186 x 0.186 = 3.6%).
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Washington Wizards – 3.5% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Emeka Okafor‘s odds of collecting consecutive rebounds.
Emeka Okafor snared 18.7% of the total available rebounds when he was on the floor for the Wizards. His odds of collecting two in a row would be (0.187 x 0.187 = 3.5%).
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Minnesota Timberwolves – 1.7% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same Ricky Rubio‘s odds of making four consecutive shots from the field.
Ricky Rubio shot 36.0% from the field for the Timberwolves this season. His odds of making four in a row would be (0.360 x 0.360 x 0.360 x 0.360 = 1.7%).
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Portland Trailblazers – 1.1% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as J.J. Hickson‘s odds of generating a steal on any given defensive possession.
J.J. Hickson’s season long steal percentage for the Trail Blazers this season was 1.1%.
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Philadelphia 76ers – 0.8% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Evan Turner‘s odds of going eight consecutive field goal attempts without a mid-range jumper.
53.9% of Evan Turner’s shot attempts this season were not mid-range jumpers. His odds of attempting eight consecutive shots without having one come from the mid-range would be (0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 x 0.539 = 0.7%).
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Toronto Raptors – 0.7% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Rudy Gay‘s odds of making five consecutive mid-range jumpers.
Rudy Gay made 36.0% of his mid-range jumpshots this season. His odds of making five in a row would be (0.360 x 0.360 x 0.360 x 0.360 x 0.360 = 0.6%).
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Dallas Mavericks – 0.6% chance of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Dirk Nowitzki‘s odds of making 34 consecutive free throws.
Dirk Nowitzki made 86.0% of his free throws this season. His odds of making 34 in a row would be (0.860 ^ 34 = 0.6%).
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Utah Jazz – 0.5% of winning the #1 pick – About the same as Mo Williams‘ odds of collecting two consecutive rebounds.
Mo Williams had a total rebound percentage of 7.2% this season. His odds of snagging two consecutive rebounds would be (0.072 x 0.072 = 0.5%).
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As crazy as all those odds sound, keep in mind that one of them will hit tonight!
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Shots from different locations are provide different value. For example, a layup has higher chance of being made than a long two-pointer, and a three-pointer earns an extra point. We refer to these different values as the expected value of a shot. XPPS looks at all the shots a player or team takes and boils that down to one average expected value per shot. Free throw attempts are included as well, so from here on out when I refer to shot attempts, I’m referring to true shot attempts (field goals and trips to the free throw line). In the end, more shots at the rim, free throws and three-pointers means a higher XPPS. More long two-pointers sends the number in the other direction.
Over the past two weeks we’ve gone back and reviewed regular season numbers for both players and teams. Today I wanted to look at how each team’s shot selection has changed from the regular season to the playoffs. The graph below includes three pieces of information. Each team’s regular season XPPS is graphed on the vertical axis. Their playoff XPPS is graphed on the horizontal axis. The third piece of information I’ve included is the change in actual points per shot from regular season to the playoffs. This number is represented by the color of each mark.
The first thing you’ll notice is that almost every team’s actual points per shot has decreased dramatically in the playoffs. The two exceptions are the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors. The Warriors’ increase in efficiency came on almost the exact same quality of shots, meaning they just made slightly more of them then they did in the regular season. The Grizzlies however, have significantly improved their shot selection in the playoffs. The biggest difference has been their free throw rate. In the regular season their ratio of FTA/FGA was 0.261. In the playoffs so far it’s been 0.390. Even though their FT% has slightly declined in the playoffs, simply using more offensive possessions at the free throw line has greatly improved their offensive efficiency. In the regular season the Grizzlies averaged 16.5 made free throws per game, in the playoffs that number has soared to 23.4.
Two other teams that have significantly improved their shot selection in the playoffs are the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers. Again this increase in expected efficiency is almost all about getting to the free throw line. In the regular season their FTA/FGA ratios were 0.297 and 0.293, respectively. So far in the playoffs those marks are 0.369 and 0.383. As these two teams head to the Eastern Conference Finals controlling this variable is going to have a huge impact on the series. Not only has it been the driving force behind each team’s offensive efficiency in the playoffs, but both teams are relatively thin in the front court. Consistent foul trouble on either side will really impact rotations and could throw both teams off offensively and defensively.
On the other end of the spectrum we see that the Los Angeles Lakers were really hindered by an inability to get to the line against the Spurs. Their XPPS fell by 0.067 points per shot in the playoffs, which works out to an expected deficit of nearly seven points per 100 possessions. Their regular season FTA/FGA ratio was 0.345, the best in the league. Kobe Bryant had a lot to do with that, but Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol both regularly drew fouls in the post. In the playoffs that ratio fell to 0.237, which would have ranked 26th in the league during the regular season.
Another team who’s shot selection has really fallen off in the playoffs is the San Antonio Spurs. They haven’t been able to take advantage of the free throw bump some other teams are seeing, basically duplicating their regular season FTA/FGA ratio, but they’re also getting far fewer high-value shots. In the regular season just 25.4% of the Spurs’ shot attempts were long two-pointers, one of the lowest rates in the league. In the playoffs that number has skyrocketed to 33.3%, making up their largest portion of their true shot attempts by a wide margin. It’s no coincidence that the areas which have suffered the most are the areas that provide the most expected value. The percentage of their shots which have come at the rim has fallen from 35.1% in the regular season to 26.2% in the playoffs. The percentage of their shots which have been corner three-pointers has fallen from 9.5% in the regular season to 7.7% in the playoffs.
The final team who has seen some real fundamental changes to their playoff shot selection is the New York Knicks. They attempted a league-high 1,764 three-pointers this season, 26.4% of their total shot attempts. Three-pointers actually made up a larger portion of their shot attempts in the playoffs, 28.8%, with one fundamental change. Corner three-pointers have a much higher expected value than those taken from above-the-break. In the regular season the Knicks’ ratio of above-the-break three pointers to corner threes was a robust 1.8 to 1. In the playoffs that ratio more than doubled to 3.9 to 1. The difference between locations on three-pointers may seem like splitting hairs, but stretched out over 100 shots, corner three-pointers would earn you, on average, an extra 10.9 points over their above-the-break relatives.
Of all these numbers the most surprising thing to me was that in the aggregate the changes were fairly minor, and most of them can be explained by conventional wisdom. The general consensus is that the playoffs feature tougher defense, making it harder to score, and a much more physical style of play. In the near universal decline in scoring efficiency and the way many teams have been getting to the free throw line at much higher rates, we see both ideas played out to a large degree. There are plenty more variables at work but conventional wisdom and statistical analysis so often find themselves at odds, it’s comforting to find a place where the work in concert.
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Shots from different locations are provide different value. For example, a layup has higher chance of being made than a long two-pointer, and a three-pointer earns an extra point. We refer to these different values as the expected value of a shot. XPPS looks at all the shots a player or team takes and boils that down to one average expected value per shot. Free throw attempts are included as well, so from here on out when I refer to shot attempts, I’m referring to true shot attempts (field goals and trips to the free throw line). In the end, more shots at the rim, free throws and three-pointers means a higher XPPS. More long two-pointers sends the number in the other direction.
I’ve been keeping track of the numbers all season long for individual players, teams and team defenses, all with interactive visualizations. Last week we looked at some of the best and worst shot selections this season from individual players. Today I want to dig into a few of the most and least impressive team numbers.
This season’s worst shot selection belongs to the Philadelphia 76ers, with an XPPS of 1.016. League average this season was 1.047. The culprit was the ugliest weapon in any offensive arsenal, the mid-range jumpshot, making up 32.0% of their true shot attempts. As a team they attempted nearly a thousand more long two-pointers than three-pointers. That sort of reliance on the mid-range shot certainly hinders offensive efficiency, but it doesn’t outright prohibit it. However, in addition to taking a boatload of long two-pointers the 76ers weren’t especially good at making them. They outperformed their XPPS by just 0.003, for an actual points per shot of 1.019, the second worst mark in the league.
Again, shot selection is not the be-all, end-all variable for good offense but its impact is significant. In a hypothetical world where the 76ers’ shooting percentages from each area of the floor where completely static and immune to changes from outside factors; bringing just their shot selection up to league average XPPS would raise their TS% from 50.9%, 29th in the league this season, to 51.7%, which would have ranked 21st. Using that number, some regression analysis I’ve done previously, and holding their OReb% and TO% constant, we can predict that their ORtg. would jump from the 99.9 they actually averaged in the regular season to 102.9. That would essentially give them an even point differential for the season, the mark of a 0.500 team. I know I’m sprinting down a slippery slope here, assuming a huge number of other variables wouldn’t change as well, but since the 76ers finished at 34-48 we can estimate that their shot selection may have cost them as many as seven wins this season.
With new GM Sam Hinkie on board there are sure to be some foundational changes to how the 76ers go about their business. I’m certainly not the first one to point it out, but working on shot selection may be a good place to start.
At the other end of the spectrum we find a pair of teams working shot selection to some unbelievable advantages. The top two team shot selections this season, measured by XPPS, were the Houston Rockets (1.103) and the Denver Nuggets (1.094). Those two marks were not only the highest this season, they’re the two highest for the last 12 NBA seasons (which is as far back as my data goes). Given the way shot selection is trending in the NBA, it may be safe to say that they’re the two most efficient shot selections of the three-point era.
Although they were both on the extreme ends of efficiency in terms of offensive decision making, the Nuggets and Rockets went about things in different ways. Both teams abhorred mid-range jumpshots, and their percentage of shot attempts used on long two-pointers, 12.9% for the Rockets and 15.8% for the Nuggets, were the lowest for the past 12 seasons. But in avoiding those inefficient shots, they went in two directions. 30.8% of the Rockets true shot attempts were three-pointers this season, the second most in the league behind the Knicks. Meanwhile, 41.9% of the Nuggets’ shot attempts came at the rim, by far the best percentage in the league. The second best mark in the league did belong to the Rockets, at 35.5%. So while the Rockets avoided inefficiency primarily by retreating behind the three-point line, the Nuggets headed for the rim at unprecedented rates.
Each team used ultra-efficient shot selection to compensate for a different weakness. The Nuggets a lacked a single player with enough offensive firepower to unilaterally destroy a defense. What they had was a collection of talented, if slightly more limited offensive players, who’s abilities they maximized by hammering them into that ultra-efficient framework. The Rockets had that uniquely talented individual scorer in James Harden, but lacked the offensive depth that the Nuggets have. For them efficient shot selection was a way of scaffolding their limitations around Harden. In both cases the results were extremely successful as the finished the regular season as the 6th and 7th most efficient offenses in the league.
I did one other piece of analysis with these two team’s shot selections numbers, sparked by Daryl Morey’s comments about trying to increase variance in their playoff series against the Thunder by taking more three-pointers. Although three-pointers are an incredibly valuable shot because of the extra point each make earns, they’re made less frequently. In a large sample the inaccuracy and added value even out over time, making them worth the risk. But in a small sample size, three-pointers introduce a lot of instability to offensive output because of the reduced rate at which they put points on the board.
Although the quality of their shot selections and offensive efficiency were very similar, the fact that the Nuggets relied so heavily on interior shots made their offense more stable than the Rockets. I looked at the game-by-game offensive efficiency for each team this season and measured the variance. The Rockets’ variance in ORtg. worked out to 177.3, nearly twice as large as the Nuggets’ 95.7. That means that although the Rockets’ offense produced higher highs this season, it also produced lower lows. The reliance on the three-pointer made their offense less consistent on a night-to-night basis. If you’ve ever heard an announcer say a team “lives by the three, and dies by the three” they’re referring to this phenomenon in slightly more theatrical terms. Exploring this link between shot selection and variance in offensive efficiency is definitely on my summer to-do list.
Check back in next week and we’ll review the shot-selection numbers for team defense. Spoiler alert – there are some historic numbers to be found there as well.
In case you missed the link further up the page, all the team numbers I referenced can be found here.
Although we spend our time writing about basketball, we’re a diverse bunch here at Hickory-High, with interests that extend far beyond the hardwood. Kyle Soppe, our resident archivist of statistical minutiae, also happens to be a devoted disciple of fantasy sports. If you follow Kyle on Twitter, @unSOPable23, you know that besides his work here he writes frequently about fantasy baseball and football for a variety of websites.
Kyle has kicked that fantasy sports analysis up a notch and this week is releasing his own 90-page fantasy football preview magazine, Stats for Sundays, looking ahead to the upcoming 2013 season. Chock full of analysis, rankings and projections; the magazine also includes an original statistical metric – translating the idea of “quality starts” from fantasy baseball to measure the consistency of fantasy football production.
This season the magazine is available only as a hard copy. You can snag yours at Amazon, or by contacting Kyle directly if you’d like to avoid having a percentage of the sale heading into the hands of an internet commerce behemoth. If you’re not a twitterer, send him an email at KylePickinSplinters@rochester.rr.com. The cost is a measly $9, which can easily be recouped by using his insights to dominate your league. Whether you play fantasy football, or are just fan of statistical analysis and the entrepreneurial spirit, get your copy and start rolling in the knowledge.
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Stephen Curry has been on an absolute tear since the All-Star break, keeping his career-long ankle troubles from holding back the barrage of threes and slick dimes that have wreaked havoc around the league with no end in sight. His name no longer unknown, (we can’t be friends if it took you this long to realize who he was) Curry is now perched on the “superstar” pedestal, being only 25 years of age and yet dominating the NBA with ease. His averages on the year: 22.9 PPG, nearly 7 assists a night on 45.3% shooting from downtown and 90% from the free throw stripe. However, like most superstars, Curry is not an unstoppable force and can be contained when defended correctly. Let’s dive in, using footage from Games 2 and 3 against San Antonio in the second round of these Playoffs.
Pick & Roll
The focal point of Curry’s attack has been the pick-and-roll, where 32.1% of his offense is created, according to mySynergySports. Curry attempted the most threes out of the pick-and-roll compared to any other categorized play, shooting 43.9% on 173 shots from behind the arc. His defender going under the screen allows too much space for a Curry jumper, and when he goes over the pick his big man needs to step up and not allow Curry the three-point look. Big men will oftentimes be too slow to react or merely show and drop back, which usually ends up as three points on the board for Golden State.
Tim Duncan hesitates before stepping up to contest Curry, and it costs San Antonio three early points. In the closing quarter of this same game, Tiago Splitter awaits Curry around the screen and forces a tie up.
When a screen is called for Curry, the best way to counterattack it is with a trap or a switch in which the big gets right up on Curry. The Miami Heat are the league’s chief user of the pick-and-roll trap, and in Curry’s single game against them this season, he only attempted 10 shots and 3 threes with a 45% eFG% compared to his season averages of 17.8 FGA, 7.7 3PA and a 54.9% eFG%. A one-game sample size means nothing really, but it’s something to consider. As for the risk of Curry easily blowing by a big man coming up to meet him, I’ll address this in my next point.
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Force Curry inside
As deadly as Stephen Curry is from the perimeter, the same cannot be said for when he attacks the rim. Blame it on his skinny frame or ankle troubles but Curry is a very poor finisher near the basket. Notice his shooting percentages at the basket and right near it during the regular season:
These percentages have been no better during the postseason:
Thus, a continuous thread throughout this post is forcing Curry inside. Obviously wide open layups are never shots you want to give up, but with the right amount of help, Curry will struggle to find his mark. There is always the threat of him finding the open man as Steph has tremendous court vision and passing ability, but this is something that will have to be dealt as your primary concern in defending Golden State is shutting down Curry. Danny Green has the right idea in the clip below, sticking right to Curry and not giving him any room for a jumper.
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Spot in transition
According to Synergy, the transition game is where Curry finds the next biggest portion of his offense, behind only the pick-and-roll. It’s easy to understand why, with Steph flourishing from behind the arc on fast breaks or semi-fast breaks, shooting an unconscious 52.3% from downtown. This is a product of late reactions from the transition defenders, not realizing that Curry is on the break and that he will launch the ball from deep and will likely make it. Watch Danny Green and Tim Duncan allow Curry the space he needs to drain a three:
The key here is to spot Curry whenever the Warriors are on a break and send one man over to guard him. Even if this results in a lay-in, the three-point shot would have been prevented. Watch how Danny Green eyes Curry before he crosses halfcourt here, and is able to stop him from creating anything out of this semi-break:
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Off-ball defense
The Warriors will often put point guard Jarrett Jack in the game to run the offense with Stephen Curry running around screens to get open looks. Curry’s quickness and agility are hard to match, so the best course of action here is to simply switch on any off-ball screens or crowd him, making it more difficult for him to maneuver about. Watch Bonner here leave his man in a switch to go meet Curry at the catch, restricting the open three and instead forcing Steph to create something inside, where Harrison Barnes makes a terrific random cut to draw the foul.
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He’s still Stephen Curry
Like all superstars, you’re going to have to deal with getting beat sometimes. Even defended perfectly, the best scorers in the game will still find a way to burn you. Curry is no different, and sometimes you need to just take it and move on to the next play:
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That being said, he safely resides in the next tier of point guard and is more than capable of heading a championship level team. I hardly have the NBA experience of Allen, but as a reasonably efficient high school point guard in my day (Kyle Soppe, the pAssman), here are my PG rankings with a regular season Conley (25 years old) related tidbit for each. It is important to note that these rankings are for next season. This isn’t a “you’re starting a franchise now and need a point guard” list, but rather a snap shot as to where we stand at the PG position for the 2014 regular season.
1. Chris Paul (28 years old) – Regardless of where he plays, he is simply the gold standard when it comes to properly running an offense. The six time All-Star and four time All-NBA Defensive team member has a career 4.03 assist to turnover ratio, 25.2% better than Conley’ best season.
2. Russell Westbrook (24 years old) – The explosive leader of the Thunder has the ability to do things athletically than Conley simply will never be capable of. Westbrook’s shot selection is as criticized as anybody’s, but his FG% over the last two seasons (44.7%) is better than any season Conley has ever produced in the NBA.
3. Kyrie Irving (21 years old) – The general public seems to have forgotten just how special (brief reminder) this former Blue Devil is just because he isn’t still playing. He’s a high level athlete that has playmaking abilities and instincts than cannot be taught. Since leaving college, Irving has scored 1.25 points per FGA while Conley has averaged 1.20 over the same stretch.
4. Stephen Curry (25 years old) – Yes, I’m buying this postseason breakout to a greater degree than that of Conley. We all know that Curry has arguably the sweetest stroke we’ve ever seen, but he is far from a one trick pony. In fact, the baby-faced Curry has muscled up for 30% more rebounds than Conley over his career and holds the edge in steals per game.
5. Derrick Rose (24 years old) – Say what you will about this season, but Rose at full health is as tough a cover a there is in the league. His size and athleticism demand the attention of the opposing team’s best defender (players like Tony Allen), thus creating mismatches for his teammates. All you have to do is look at his 2010-2011 season to realize that his ceiling is significantly greater than that of Conley. In Rose’s MVP campaign he scored 2,026 points, a 70 point edge over Conley’s total number of points scored in the last two seasons combined. Scoring is his greatest attribute, but he does average 23.6% more assists per game over his career than the Grizzlies’ guard.
OK, so that settles the debate over the top five point guards in the league today. Conley has been excellent this postseason and is developing into a very good point guard, but he simply isn’t in the class of the five listed above. I’d listen to an argument at placing him anywhere in this next tier of PG’s, but I’ve got him sandwiched between Holiday and Williams.
6. Rajon Rondo (27 years old) – It is entirely possible that Conley is playing at a top-five level (based on his hot streak and the rash of injuries among the PG’s ranked above him), but that wasn’t the quote. Rondo is the best table setter in the league (149 more assists than Conley over the past two season despite playing 51 fewer games) and among the best defensive options at the point. Those qualities are well known, but did you know that since Conley entered the NBA in 2007-2008, Rondo actually averages more FGM per game (5.02 to 4.60)?
7. Tony Parker (30 years old) – The elder statesmen of this strong crop of point guards will turn 31 in less than a week, but Parker is showing more signs of improvement than decline. His experience is a factor that cannot be measured statistically, so let’s stick with some numbers. As a five-star recruit, Conley was part of a loaded Ohio State team that lost in the national championship. During that season, Conley shot 51.8% from the field against comparatively inferior competition for the most part. Parker has shot a higher percentage from the field than that in two of the last three seasons.
8. Ty Lawson (25 years old) – His choice in headband style may be declining, but every other statistic is on the uptick for this road runner. In each season of his budding career, Lawson has increased his point, assist, and steal totals. His extreme speed is an advantage he holds over nearly every point guard in the league, making the fact that he owns a better career 3P% than Conley icing on the cake. I trust Lawson’s ability to penetrate/create a bit more and believe that he is a slightly tougher matchup on the perimeter.
9. Jrue Holiday (22 years old) – It is easy to forget just how young the 76ers leader is, especially when you consider the increasing maturity of his game. This past season saw Holiday tally 17.7 points and 8.0 assists on a nightly basis, numbers that may define the ceiling for Conley. When comparing Holiday’s 2012 season totals with the totals from when Conley was 22 years old (424 more points and 200 more assists), it is clear that Holiday is on the fast track to ascend to the top of this second tier. After a strong campaign in his first season as the 76ers go-to player, Holiday proved more than capable, a quality that is hard to find in players (especially point guards) his age.
10. Deron Williams (28 years old) – It feels like DWill was atop this list not very long ago, and while he has dropped off a bit, he still deserves to be considered a strong option. He has developed a lethal outside game (169 3PM this season, three more than Conley over the last two seasons), allowing him to stretch defenses and thus create single coverage situations in the paint. Williams has a higher scoring upside than Conley but lacks general consistency on both ends to still be considered with the best PG’s in the league.
This list doesn’t include Damian Lillard (need to see more), Ricky Rubio (my favorite player, but he’s a poor man’s Rondo at this point), or whoever you consider to be the point guard in Milwaukee (inefficient and lacking the ability to lead a team).
What did I get wrong? Tony Allen has forgotten more today than I know about basketball, but is he too close to the situation to properly analyze where his teammate ranks? Or am I just off my rocker and failing to accept that Memphis is home to an elite point guard? I’d love to hear your thoughts (@unSOPable23) and see how you’d rank the top point guards in the NBA for 2014.
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I’ve built visualizations which allow you to explore, sort and filter the XPPS numbers for players, team offenses and team defenses. I know those interactive graphs can be a little overwhelming so I wanted to pull out some of the most interesting numbers from this season and go a little bit deeper with them. Today we’ll be looking at some of the shot selection numbers for individual players, with analysis of teams to follow in subsequent posts.
This first table shows the players with the ten highest and lowest-value shot selections, as measured by XPPS. I separated the players into three groups based on their USG%, to differentiate between players with different roles.
As we mentioned above players over and under-perform the expected values of their shot selection all the time, which is a big factor in evaluating whether they truly understand their offensive roles and strengths. This next table shows the same 60 players, but instead of their XPPS I’ve listed their Shot Making Difference, which is the difference between their XPPS and their Actual Points Per Shot. You can see some players who take high-value shots, but don’t necessarily make them, as well as players who make a lot of low-value shots, usually long two-pointers.
The extent to which XPPS is useful in evaluating shot selection is pretty limited if you don’t also understand the context of their skills, limitations and responsibilities within the team’s offensive structure. Here are few of those numbers, both good and bad, with the context more fully fleshed out.
LeBron James – 1.079 XPPS (8th best in the >24 USG% bracket), +0.202 Shot Making Difference – What James did this season in the scoring efficiency department this season was simply incredible, increasing his FG% from essentially every area of the floor. However, he exponentially raised the impact of those gains in accuracy by improving his shot selection as well. Last season 37.9% of James’ shot attempts were long two-pointers. This season that percentage fell to 29.7%, with big increases in both shots at the rim and three-pointers. He made shots at an incredible rate this season, but he also made an incredible effort to make sure he was taking the right shots.
Tyreke Evans – 1.119 XPPS (5th best in the 19-24 USG% bracket), -0.002 Shot Making Difference – For his first few seasons in the NBA, Evans was the poster boy for unconscionable shot selection. A sensational rookie season was met with criticism of his inconsistent outside shooting. Over the next two seasons Evans seemed determined to prove those critics wrong, spending more and more time outside the paint, and in the process, proving those critics right by missing mountains of jumpshots. This season, he made some huge changes and it showed up in his scoring efficiency. First off, he became a consistent three-point shooter, knocking down 34.2% compared to a previous career high of 29.1%. Also, for the first time in his career he attempted more three-pointers than long two-pointers. Those inefficient and inaccurate mid-range shots made up just 16.7% of his shot attempts this season, by far the lowest percentage of his career. We always find time to celebrate the players who become better shooters, but we should also find time to celebrate players, like Evans, who become better decision makers.
J.J. Hickson – 1.111 XPPS (8th best in the 19-24 USG% bracket), 0.070 Shot Making Difference – Hickson is another player, like Evans, who made dramatic improvements in offensive efficiency by making dramatic improvements in offensive decision making. Last season 51.0% of Hickson’s shot attempts came at the rim. This season that number jumped to 65.3%. By being more selective with his long two-pointers, he also became more accurate. Last season he shot 30.5% in that zone, where this season he made 47.3% with a whopping 71% of his makes being assisted on. Concentrating on what you do well can yield tremendous benefits.
Tyler Hansbrough - 1.135 XPPS (2nd best in the 19-24 USG% bracket), -0.081 Shot Making Difference - How does a player who shoots below the league average from every area of the floor end up with a TS% above the league average? Free throws. Hansbrough took 361 shots from the field this season and 263 free throws. Only Dwight Howard and Reggie Evans had a higher ratio of FTA/FGA. He’s not a great finisher or shot maker from anywhere, but he has really focused on his strengths – getting to the rim and getting to the line. That FTA/FGA ratio was a career-high, nearly 50% higher than in any of his previous seasons. This was also the first season of his career where he attempted more shots at the rim than long-two pointers.
Dirk Nowitzki, Elton Brand, Chris Kaman – 0.946 | 0.950 | 0.951 XPPS (3rd, 2nd and 4th worst in their respective USG% brackets) – There is an absolute benefit to having players, especially big men, who can step out and knock down a mid-range jumper. It’s a pressure valve for an offense and can really buoy the efficiency of a group against tough defenses. The problem is when that shot becomes the centerpiece of the offense. Nowtizki is one of the best mid-range shooters in the history of the NBA and having him take that shot on a regular basis won’t break the offense. But the Mavericks stacked their front court with mid-range shooters the entire offense suffered. Last season when Nowitzki was on the floor 21.5% of his teammates’ shots were long two-pointers. This season, alongside Brand and Kaman, 26.8% of his teammates’ shots were long two-pointers. Even making those shots at an above average rate, as Brand, Kaman and Nowitzki can do, provides less efficient scoring that a multitude of other options. The Mavericks’ offense this season was a perfect example of the lesson that, “just because you can make a shot doesn’t mean you should take a shot.”
Evan Turner – 0.973 XPPS (8th worst in the 19-24 USG% bracket), -0.17 Shot Making Difference – Making 36.5% of his three-pointers this season was a big step forward for Turner. He’s also settled into a nice, accurate groove on long two-pointers, making 42.3%. The problem, as always, is balance. This was the third season of Turner’s career, and the third in which his ratio of long two-pointers to shots at the rim was roughly 2-to-1. Those long two-pointers made up nearly half his shot attempts this season and still outnumbered his newly accurate three-point shots by more than 3-to-1. He also shot a career low 47.9% on shots at the rim this season, where the league-average was 64.7%. Turner is a respectable mid-range shooter, but that shot just isn’t efficient enough to be the foundation of a richly versatile offense game. The bottom line is that he simply can’t be a viably efficient offensive player with this shot selection.
Tayshaun Prince – 0.963 XPPS (5th worst in the <19 USG% bracket), 0.008 Shot Making Difference – At this point in his career Prince’s offensive contributions come almost exclusively as a spot-up shooter. For most players this would equate to a lot of three-point attempts, but this season he attempted four times as many long two-pointers as three-pointers. Prince’s three-point attempts per 40 minutes this season were at a career low and even declined further as he moved from Detroit to Memphis. It’s a shame because Memphis is in desperate need of floor spacing and Prince has the skills to have a Shane Battier-like effect in that department. But to make that really work he needs to move a step or two back.
Andrew Nicholson – 0.954 XPPS (4th worst in the 19-24 USG% bracket), +0.154 Shot Making Difference – Including Nicholson on this end of the list may be a little unfair. He actually had a really solid rookie season and proved himself to be a reliable perimeter threat, both spotting up and as the screener in the pick-and-roll. Although his shot-selection looks terrible, with 45% of his shot attempts coming on long two-pointers, he drastically over performed the expected value of his shots and finished the year shooting 43.8% on those long twos. Although his XPPS puts him in the bottom ten, his actual points per shot were higher than Tyler Hansbrough’s, who ranked in the top ten in XPPS. He has the potential to be a supremely better version of Brandon Bass, but if he really wants to push the bounds of his efficiency it would be worth it for him to work on stretching his range out past the three point line. Nicholson didn’t attempt a single three-pointer this season, but shot a reasonable 34.0% from 20-24ft. Besides the added value of potentially earning three points per shot attempt, adding a few feet to his range will also open some considerable space in the paint for his teammates.
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